SpaceX’s first stretch as a public company has already looked more like a trading event than a steady re-pricing. According to commentary shared by eToro, the stock’s initial surge in the days after its IPO was followed by a sharp pullback, as investors recalibrated around supply constraints, upcoming insider share unlocks, and the company’s recent move into the debt markets.
IPO excitement, then a rapid cooling
SpaceX began trading publicly on June 12 at $135 per share, with the opening print near $150, based on the eToro analysis circulated in late June. Investor demand lifted the stock quickly, pushing shares to roughly $226 within days. At one point, SpaceX was described as briefly among the highest-valued public companies globally, landing ahead of Amazon and Microsoft in market-value terms.
That momentum did not last. The commentary says the subsequent sell-off erased more than $600 billion in market value over the following sessions and drove the stock back toward the IPO price range. On Tuesday, it traded briefly below the $150 debut level before recovering to finish marginally higher. The report places the shares around $157 at the time of writing, still above the IPO level but well below the early peak.
Why early trading moved so fast
In newly public listings, volatility is often amplified by how shares are distributed at the start and how quickly additional supply becomes available. eToro’s market analyst highlights three overlapping drivers.
Limited float increases price sensitivity
A central factor cited is the limited public float. The commentary states that around 4.2% of total shares were made available in the IPO. With a smaller portion of stock actively tradeable early on, price moves can intensify as demand and sentiment shift. In practical terms, even modest changes in investor participation can translate into outsized percentage swings.
Lock-up and insider unlocks approach
Another near-term influence is the expected cadence of insider share unlocks. eToro’s note says a 20% insider share unlock linked to the company’s August earnings release is anticipated to increase the shares available for trading. Additional unlocks are expected later in August and into September.
From a market perspective, unlock schedules frequently become catalysts in the run-up to major dates because they change the supply outlook. Even when fundamentals are unchanged, a perceived increase in sellable shares can pressure valuations.
Debt issuance reframes the financing story
As the equity price faced pressure, SpaceX also moved to raise funds through debt markets. The commentary says the company launched a bond offering initially targeting about $20 billion in senior unsecured notes, then increased the deal size to $25 billion after strong demand, which the note describes as nearly $90 billion.
According to the eToro summary, proceeds are expected to be used to refinance a bridge loan connected to SpaceX’s merger with xAI, and to support future AI-related investments. Markets often watch such moves closely because they can signal balance-sheet strategy and help shape expectations for future capital needs.
Still, the timing matters. The note also says that the fundraising so soon after a high-profile, record-setting IPO raised questions among some participants. For public investors, the question is not only whether capital will be available, but why it is being sourced through debt at this particular moment.
What investors are likely to watch next
eToro’s commentary frames the near-term period as a test of how quickly the market can establish a stable valuation for a company of SpaceX’s scale. A key milestone is the company’s first earnings report, expected in August. The stock’s path into that report may also be shaped by the approach to the first scheduled insider unlock and any related adjustments in the implied supply of shares.
Beyond earnings, investors typically look for confirmation that expectations around growth and capital intensity can translate into measurable performance. In this case, the interaction between equity valuation and financing strategy could remain a central theme as investors weigh the debt issuance against the initial IPO narrative.
Takeaway: early price discovery, not a settled valuation
SpaceX’s first two weeks as a public company, as described by eToro, illustrate how public listings can behave during the “price discovery” phase. A constrained float can magnify swings, lock-up calendars can create anticipation effects, and new financing actions can complicate the market’s interpretation of near-term risk. While the stock appears to have fallen from its initial peak, it remains above the IPO reference point in the timeframe covered by the commentary.
With insider unlock dates and the August earnings event approaching, the next stage will likely involve more than day-to-day trading. It will be driven by how investors reconcile supply changes and capital planning with emerging company performance in public markets.
Note: This article is based on market commentary shared by eToro. It is presented for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.
