Soybeans edged lower on Monday, with most futures contracts falling by about 17 to 18 cents, while the USDA’s export data showed continued movement in the market. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price slipped to $10.63 3/4, down 16 3/4 cents, as traders balanced export activity against a near-term weather outlook and positioning changes.
USDA reported a private export sale of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, a development that still didn’t prevent declines across the complex, including soymeal and soy oil futures.
Key takeaways
- Soybeans fell: July 26 soybeans were down 17 1/2 cents at $11.08 3/4, with nearby cash off 16 3/4 cents to $10.63 3/4.
- Mixed demand signals: USDA said a private export sale of 136,000 MT was made to unknown destinations.
- Weather remains a swing factor: NOAA’s updated seven-day outlook calls for light rain mainly across parts of the Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota and eastern Nebraska.
- Funds trimmed exposure: The latest Commitment of Traders data showed speculators reducing their net long position in soybeans.
- Implication for investors: With planting acreage reporting due soon and weather in focus, the market’s direction may hinge on near-term crop conditions and demand confirmation.
What drove the move
According to USDA, the market received a private export sale of 136,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations earlier on Monday. At the same time, broader export shipment data remained supportive but was not strong enough to lift prices.
Data from USDA’s FGIS showed soybean export shipments of 419,124 MT (15.4 mbu) for the week ending June 25. That level was up 54% versus the prior week and 76.7% higher than the same week a year ago.
The report also highlighted destination patterns, with Mexico taking 121,835 MT, Japan importing 104,589 MT, and China purchasing 65,389 MT. For marketing year 2025/26, exports total 37.299 MMT (1.37 bbu), which USDA said is 18.7% below the comparable period last year.
On the weather front, NOAA’s updated seven-day QPF indicated rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Eastern Dakotas, Minnesota, eastern Nebraska, and into the northwestern part of Iowa and Wisconsin. The southeast of Iowa, Missouri, and the ECB were described as dry over the same period.
Finally, market positioning also leaned bearish. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed speculators trimming their net long in soybeans by 16,139 contracts, bringing the net long down to 36,679 contracts. The reduction was driven largely by longs exiting, down 15,872 contracts.
Market reaction across the soy complex
Prices were lower across multiple contracts. On Monday, analysts and traders tracked the following levels: July 26 soybeans at $11.08 3/4, down 17 1/2 cents; August 26 soybeans at $11.19, down 17 1/2 cents; and November 26 soybeans at $11.38 1/4, down 18 cents. New crop cash was reported at $10.74 3/4, down 18 1/2 cents.
In the processing spread, soymeal futures were lower by $2.10 to $4.20, while soy oil futures fell—July soy oil was indicated down 213 points. The move suggests traders were more focused on aggregate supply-and-demand factors and positioning than on any single export headline.
What analysts are watching next
Attention is turning to USDA’s next acreage update. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for NASS to report 85.2 million soybean acres planted this spring in the June Acreage report due Tuesday.
That planting figure could influence expectations for the balance between domestic supply and export demand. With marketing year exports for 2025/26 currently reported by USDA as trailing last year, investors may use the acreage number to gauge whether production will tighten or relieve pressure on prices later in the cycle.
Weather will likely remain the near-term catalyst. NOAA’s forecast points to scattered rain potential across key growing areas, while drier conditions in parts of the Midwest could keep attention on crop development and regional variability.
Bigger picture for investors
Even with export shipments running ahead of both the prior week and the same week last year, the market’s pricing suggests traders are not yet willing to fully price in sustained bullish demand. The combination of a modest USDA private sale, weaker overall contract performance, and speculators cutting net long exposure indicates that sentiment is still fragile.
For investors, the next signals to monitor are USDA’s acreage update, follow-through on export sales and shipments, and whether the weather pattern evolves beyond the initial seven-day window. The interaction between expected planting totals and near-term rainfall will likely shape the direction of soybeans and the broader soy complex in the sessions ahead.
Next to watch: Tuesday’s USDA/NASS June Acreage report and any additional updates from USDA export data, alongside NOAA’s subsequent weather outlook revisions.
