Bitcoin extended its slide this week and remains in a technical bear market, with the cryptocurrency trading around $66,800 on Sunday. The move comes after a steep fall from an October peak near $126,300, and traders say a mix of chart signals and macro headlines point to continued pressure in the near term, according to Invezz’s technical review.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Bitcoin trades around $66,800, well below itsOctober high and down sharply from the prior cycle high.
- Catalyst: A confluence of chart patterns—bearish flag formation since January, a rising channel within the flag, a death cross between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and persistent weakness below Supertrend indicators—suggests further downside risk, according to Invezz.
- Market reaction: Investor sentiment appears fragile, with futures open interest hovering near $48 billion and spot ETF flows showing mixed activity; some major holders have shifted positions as part of broader repositioning.
- Macro and geopolitical context: Escalating tensions in the Middle East and potential oil-price pressures could influence inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance, a factor market watchers are watching closely.
What drove the move
Invezz notes that Bitcoin has slumped from a high of about $126,300 reached in October last year to current levels around $66,800, underscoring a multi-month downtrend. The chart is forming a bearish flag pattern that began taking shape when Bitcoin traded near $90,000 in January and later dropped to a February low around $60,393, effectively creating a flagpole and flag structure. The analysis highlights that Bitcoin has since carved a rising channel within the flag, a pattern that echoes a similar phase observed between October and January last year. Technically, the formation of a death cross—where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average—along with the coin trading below the Supertrend indicator, reinforces a cautious outlook for near-term price action.
On the price roadmap, the next key target cited is around $60,400, the February low, with a break below that level potentially opening a path toward the psychologically important $50,000 area, according to the same assessment.
According to Invezz, these technical signals come amid a broader backdrop of shifting crypto demand and macro risk factors that have influenced market sentiment in recent weeks.
Data points referenced in the analysis include market data from TradingView for price references and standard chart indicators used by technical analysts. The assessment emphasizes that a combination of chart patterns and momentum signals is aligning with a fragile near-term setup.
Market reaction
Beyond price action, the crypto ecosystem has shown mixed signals about demand and liquidity. SoSoValue data cited by Invezz indicate that spot Bitcoin ETFs shed more than $296 million in assets last week, ending a four-week streak of inflows that had added more than $2.2 billion during that period. In futures markets, open interest has held around $48 billion for several weeks, a level well below last year’s peak of above $95 billion, suggesting waning demand relative to the most active phases of the cycle.
From a treasury and corporate-holdings perspective, activity appears mixed. Michael Saylor’s Strategy, a notable digital asset treasury holder, reportedly bought 1,030 coins in the prior week, bringing total holdings to 762,099 coins. In contrast, other crypto treasury managers have been trimming or reallocating positions; Mara Holdings, for example, sold more than 15,000 coins last week to fund a debt reduction and pivot toward artificial intelligence initiatives—an action that underscores a broader trend of balance-sheet optimization among crypto holders amid shifting market dynamics.
These data points paint a nuanced picture: while a prominent buyer continues to accumulate, other segments of the market are reducing exposure, and ETF and futures-market activity signals a more cautious stance among investors. The overall reaction suggests that volatility could persist as traders weigh technical support levels against macro and geopolitical risk factors.
Bigger picture
The confluence of technical caution and macro tensions has implications beyond crypto-specific catalysts. Escalating geopolitical frictions in the Middle East and rising oil prices could feed into higher inflation readings, potentially influencing expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Market participants have been monitoring whether inflation pressures persist and how that could shape the Fed’s rate trajectory, a dynamic that indirectly affects risk assets, including Bitcoin, and broader liquidity conditions.
Analysts note that the current environment presents a bifurcated signal: on one hand, certain crypto-native players continue to accumulate risk buffers or deploy balance sheets strategically; on the other hand, sector-wide demand indicators—such as ETF flows and open interest—point to a more cautious stance and potential for further downside in the near term.
According to the analysis summarized by Invezz, the pattern aligns with a test of critical support levels and the possibility of further dispersion in price if macro risks materialize or if momentum signs remain negative. The report emphasizes that investors should monitor both on-chain activity and traditional financial-market indicators to gauge the balance between potential risk-off flows and tactical opportunities in the crypto space.
What to watch next
Investors should continue to monitor key technical levels around $60,400 and the potential move toward $50,000 if downside momentum persists. In addition, changes in open interest in futures markets and shifts in ETF allocations will be important gauges of appetite for risk in the crypto space. On the macro side, developments in Middle East tensions and oil-price dynamics could influence inflation expectations and Fed chatter, which in turn may affect liquidity conditions for digital assets.
Upcoming events to watch include policy signals from central banks and any changes in global risk appetite that could alter crypto correlations with traditional assets. As the market digests mixed flows and technical indicators, participants will want to stay attuned to further evidence of whether the bear-market scenario remains intact or if a meaningful shift in momentum emerges.
