Ether fell toward $2,310 on Thursday after trimming an early bounce that followed a decision by the Federal Reserve to keep its benchmark interest rate range unchanged. While the Federal Open Market Committee voted 10–2 to maintain rates at 3.75%–4.00%, traders faded the initial gains as broader crypto demand signals and market positioning pointed to continued headwinds.
Ethereum is down about 2.1% over the past 24 hours, after briefly rallying toward $2,350. CME FedWatch data showed markets assigning a probability above 90% to unchanged rates, underscoring that the move was more about what investors read into the Fed’s outlook than the decision itself.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Ether slipped toward $2,310, after a brief push higher near $2,350.
- Catalyst: The Fed held rates steady at 3.75%–4.00%, with focus shifting to forthcoming inflation data and the strength of demand signals in crypto.
- ETF flow pressure: US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows for multiple sessions, reinforcing weakness in institutional demand.
- Technical levels in focus: A close below the $2,287 support area could expose lower retracement levels, while regaining key moving averages could improve the near-term outlook.
- Next driver: Investors are set to watch Thursday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures report for clues on the Fed’s next move.
What drove the move
According to the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement, economic activity was described as growing at a strong pace despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty, while inflation was still characterized as elevated. The committee said incoming data would shape the policy path needed to return inflation to its 2% target.
That framing was enough to support a short-lived rally in Ether immediately after the announcement, even though the decision was widely expected. However, the market’s response quickly turned cautious as attention broadened to other factors tied to crypto demand and the rate outlook beyond the Fed’s decision.
CME FedWatch figures indicated very high odds of no change in rates, which reduced the likelihood of a sustained trend based solely on the policy outcome. Instead, investors pivoted to the risk that inflation could remain sticky, potentially complicating expectations for future rate cuts.
Market reaction: demand signals weigh on Ether
Crypto demand indicators remained a focal point. CryptoQuant data cited in the report suggested subdued demand from US-based investors, while Ethereum’s Coinbase Premium Index remained negative. According to the article, the index fell to -0.181 on Monday—its lowest reading since February—before recovering to -0.142 on Tuesday. Negative readings indicate Ethereum trades at a discount on Coinbase versus Binance, which can be consistent with weaker buying demand or stronger selling pressure on that venue.
Spot Ethereum ETF flows also added to the pressure. According to SoSoValue, US spot Ethereum ETFs saw $60.2 million in net outflows on Tuesday, followed by $21.41 million on Wednesday. The report said withdrawals continued for a third consecutive session, extending a pattern that had already built a large monthly outflow total since the ETFs’ launch in July 2024.
While price action rebounded earlier in the day, the persistence of ETF redemptions suggested that institutional demand has not yet strengthened in a way that would clearly support a sustained recovery.
Technical picture and positioning
Technical indicators cited in the report pointed to a market that still leans bearish. The Ether/USD daily chart, as described, remained pressured after falling below the 200-day exponential moving average near $2,316. The article also noted that Ethereum failed to push above the 100-day EMA near $2,362 on Wednesday.
At the time of writing, the report stated Ether was trading around $2,309. A sustained move back above both the 200-day and 100-day EMAs would be the first step toward improving the short-term outlook and potentially shifting attention to $2,411.
Resistance levels mentioned included the 20-day EMA near $2,424 and the 50-day EMA around $2,450. Clearing that area would strengthen the case for a move toward $2,548, according to the analysis referenced in the report.
On the downside, the nearest major support highlighted was $2,287, identified as the previous week’s low. Below that, levels listed in the report were $2,256, $2,204 and $2,107.
Momentum measures also leaned toward caution. The report said the Relative Strength Index recovered to 35 and the Stochastic Oscillator rose to 33 after reaching oversold territory, but with RSI still below the neutral 50 level—consistent with selling pressure remaining present.
Liquidation data highlighted ongoing volatility as well. CoinGlass data cited in the article reported $81.5 million in ETH liquidations over the last 24 hours, including $41 million in short positions. The concentration of short liquidations was described as consistent with pressure building on bearish traders during the rebound attempt.
Bigger picture: rates, inflation expectations, and crypto flows
For crypto markets, the Fed’s decision itself was not the core variable since the outcome was largely priced in. Instead, investors are likely to focus on whether inflation pressures persist and how that may affect the timing of any future easing.
At the same time, the ETF flow data and exchange-venue premium indicators point to a market still sorting out whether the marginal buyer is returning—particularly from the US institutional channel.
Thursday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report is the next clear macro catalyst. It could shift expectations for the Fed’s subsequent steps and, in turn, influence risk appetite across crypto.
Next to watch: the PCE inflation reading and any revisions that affect the rate path, alongside continued ETF flow trends and whether Ether can reclaim key moving averages near the 200-day and 100-day levels.
