Cocoa futures on ICE slipped on Monday after fresh supply signals from the Ivory Coast and higher stocks in exchange warehouses outweighed earlier concerns about weather disrupting the harvest. December ICE New York cocoa settled lower by 0.53%, while December ICE London cocoa fell 0.71%.
Market attention remains fixed on how quickly West African production can improve from current crop conditions—and whether inventory trends will allow prices to hold recent gains. While traders had lifted prices earlier in the session on reports of heavy rain delaying bean drying and raising quality worries, the later shift in supply data and inventory levels pushed prices back down.
Key takeaways
- Price move: December cocoa in New York fell 0.53%, and December cocoa in London dropped 0.71% on Monday.
- Catalyst: Ivory Coast shipment data pointed to stronger-than-expected cocoa flows to ports, while ICE inventories rose to a 2.25-year high.
- Implication: Near-term price pressure is building as investors weigh abundant supply indicators against ongoing crop and quality risks.
- What to watch: Further weather-driven updates on West African crop quality, plus inventory and shipment pace, will likely drive the next moves.
What drove the move
Prices retreated from recent one-week highs as traders focused on evidence of ample cocoa availability from the world’s largest producer. According to Ivory Coast government data cited in market reporting, farmers shipped 2.18 million metric tons of cocoa to ports in the current international cocoa marketing year, October 1, 2025 through September 27, 2026, up 19.8% from the prior year’s comparable period.
That supply picture aligned with broader concerns that inventories could remain heavy. Cocoa prices also fell after ICE cocoa inventories rose to 3,452,949 bags, the highest level in 2.25 years, according to the report.
Earlier in the session, the market had leaned bullish as Ivory Coast farmers reported that heavy rains were disrupting the harvest and that continuous cloudy weather was preventing beans from drying. However, the inventory and shipment signals appeared to outweigh those short-term disruptions.
Market reaction and the supply-vs-weather balance
The decline on Monday followed a period of price softness. Over the past four weeks, cocoa had been under pressure and had dropped to two-month lows last Tuesday as signals pointed to higher output in the Ivory Coast.
Still, crop and quality concerns continue to provide underlying support. The article cited warnings that cloudy conditions in the Ivory Coast and Ghana are allowing black pod disease to spread, which can reduce bean quality. In addition, early surveys for the 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop indicated below-average cherelle formation—an early indicator often associated with a weaker main harvest.
Ghana-related production risk also remains part of the bullish narrative. The Ghana Cocoa Board, per the reporting, estimated the 2026/27 Ghana cocoa crop at 650,000 metric tons, down 13% from 750,000 metric tons in the 2025/26 crop year.
How analysts frame the outlook
Market commentary in the reporting suggested that while weather risks persist, the balance of supply has been improving. Barry Callebaut AG—cited as the world’s largest cocoa processor—said the global cocoa market is well supplied, which it argued leaves traders better positioned to manage risks than during the 2023/24 El Niño period that helped push prices to record highs.
Forecast updates also appear to be shifting. StoneX, in a July update referenced in the article, reduced its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 metric tons from 149,000 metric tons forecast earlier in April, citing crop risks linked to an expected El Niño. Separately, Transgraph Consulting, in another July forecast, projected the 2026–2027 surplus narrowing to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 metric tons in 2025–2026, reflecting expectations for lower production.
At the same time, the near-term counterweight is strong. The reporting noted that Ghana production for the current marketing year has been resilient, with the Ghana cocoa board reporting 750,000 metric tons harvested for 2025/26, up 25.6% from 597,000 metric tons in 2024/25.
Bigger picture: weather risk still in focus
Beyond day-to-day inventory swings, the medium-term driver in the article remains the El Niño outlook. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center was cited as saying the El Niño pattern emerging across the equatorial Pacific is likely to be among the strongest in more than 75 years. In cocoa terms, the concern is that El Niño conditions can bring warmer, drier weather to West Africa, stressing cocoa trees and reducing yields.
Demand signals were described as mixed in the reporting. The European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell 4.6%, while the National Confectioners Association said Q2 North American cocoa grindings rose 7.7% year-over-year. In Asia, the Cocoa Association of Asia cited in the article reported that Q2 grindings increased 25% year-over-year, suggesting demand may be firming in some regions.
For now, Monday’s price decline underscored how quickly the market can shift when shipment data and warehouse stocks point to stronger supply.
Next to watch: updates on Ivory Coast and Ghana crop conditions—especially any confirmation that rainy weather is improving or worsening drying and quality outcomes—alongside continued reporting on shipping volumes and ICE inventory levels. Traders will also look for additional guidance on El Niño intensity and any further commentary from processors and trade analysts as the growing season progresses.
