Bitcoin, along with Ethereum and Ripple, edged higher on Monday after a bruising October that featured four straight weeks of declines. Bitcoin climbed back above $78,200 after finding support near key technical levels, but the rebound looks incomplete as price remains below its 50-day moving average and momentum indicators continue to point to cautious trading.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Bitcoin recovered to trade above $78,000, after slipping to around $76,100 during the prior sell-off.
- Catalyst: Market pressure followed the Binance hack, with some assets reportedly frozen with help from Tether and Circle.
- Implication: Traders are watching whether Bitcoin can reclaim the 50-day EMA near $80,307, which would be a key signal for a stronger recovery.
- Risk check: Technical momentum remains fragile, with the daily RSI hovering around 40, suggesting bearish pressure has not fully dissipated.
- Broader flow signal: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $643 million on Friday, the first session following the hack.
What drove the rebound
According to market coverage, the main driver of the late sell-off was the Binance hack, with Binance reportedly hacked for nearly $6.4 billion. The exchange was said to have frozen some assets, aided by efforts from Tether and Circle, which likely helped limit the scope of immediate damage and set the stage for stabilization.
Bitcoin’s sharp drop during the event carried it down toward the $76,100 area before it began to recover. Monday’s improvement reflects a partial reset in risk appetite, but the market’s follow-through remains constrained by ongoing uncertainty tied to the incident and its aftermath.
Market reaction: ETF flows and positioning
Traditional investor activity appeared to stay cautious. Data cited from US spot Bitcoin ETF flows showed $643 million in net outflows on Friday, described as the first trading session following the hack. Large outflows can be read as investors reducing exposure, even while spot prices attempt to recover.
Derivatives pricing also shifted. In an email to Invezz, Nick Forster, founder and CEO of Derive.xyz, said the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before year-end has fallen. He pointed to Derive options repricing a 6% probability of Bitcoin exceeding $100K by Christmas last Wednesday, which he said dropped to 3.5%, or roughly a one-in-30 chance. He also cited a reduction in the odds of Bitcoin finishing above $90K by December 25 to 14%, while the chance of a finish above $80K was pegged at 44%.
Technical picture: key levels traders are watching
Bitcoin traded around $78,200 on Monday as it consolidated after the sell-off. The recovery is being tested against a cluster of moving averages that traders often use to gauge trend health.
- Immediate resistance: Bitcoin remains below its 50-day EMA near $80,307, which is framed as the first major level buyers need to reclaim to strengthen the rebound.
- Support in the broader trend: The cryptocurrency is still above its 100-day EMA at $77,831 and its 200-day EMA at $76,471, suggesting the longer-term structure has not fully broken down.
- Momentum signals: The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 40, below the neutral 50 level, indicating bearish momentum remains dominant despite the bounce. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also remains negative, implying buyers have yet to build enough conviction for a sustained reversal.
Analysts monitoring the setup said Bitcoin’s next directional move depends on whether price can push through the 50-day EMA near $80,307. A sustained daily close above that resistance level could improve the short-term outlook and potentially reopen the path toward $85,000, an area described as a prior horizontal resistance zone.
On the downside, the 100-day EMA near $77,831 is positioned as the first support. A decisive break below it would raise the risk of a retest of the 200-day EMA around $76,471. A daily close beneath $76,471 would weaken the broader technical structure and could indicate the start of a deeper corrective phase.
Bigger picture: what could set the next trend
With Bitcoin still trapped under the 50-day moving average, the market appears to be in a tug-of-war between short-term dip-buying and broader uncertainty about crypto risk exposure. ETF outflows after the hack underscore that traditional allocators may require additional confirmation before adding back aggressively.
Investors will likely focus on whether the post-hack stabilization turns into a trend reversal—starting with a reclaim of the $80,307 level—or whether price slips back toward the 200-day EMA support near $76,471.
Next, the market’s direction may hinge on continued ETF flow updates, follow-through in spot price action versus key moving averages, and broader macro developments that influence risk assets, including upcoming US economic data releases and central bank commentary.
