XRP slid in the latest 24-hour stretch, trading briefly below the $1.30 level during the London session after losing more than 4%. The drop followed a surge in U.S. inflation concerns that pressured crypto markets and raised the odds of tighter Federal Reserve policy.
September core consumer prices rose 0.3% month-over-month, outpacing analyst expectations by 0.1 percentage point, while annual headline inflation climbed to 3.7% from 3.4% in August, with higher energy prices cited as a driver. Traders recalibrated expectations for the next Fed decision, lifting the probability of an October rate hike to 50% from 25% beforehand.
Key takeaways
- Price move: XRP fell more than 4% over 24 hours and dipped below $1.30.
- Catalyst: Stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data shifted rate-hike odds higher.
- Market implication: Higher expected borrowing costs can tighten financial conditions, weighing on speculative demand.
- Next support to watch: Market focus has shifted to $1.25 after XRP slipped under key technical levels.
- Flow picture: XRP spot ETF net flows were flat across multiple sessions, limiting incremental buying support.
What drove the selloff
The immediate catalyst was the inflation print, which landed above expectations on both core and headline measures. In a market already vulnerable to rate-sensitive sentiment, the data pushed investors to reassess the Fed’s next move.
By tightening expectations around near-term policy, the release raised concerns that higher borrowing costs could reduce risk appetite and curb liquidity for assets perceived as more speculative—an effect that typically hits broader crypto sentiment and trading volumes.
For XRP specifically, the repricing of rate expectations appears to have added to existing selling pressure, pulling attention toward nearby price supports as traders questioned whether buyers could step in quickly.
ETF flows and liquidations add pressure
Spot ETF activity offered limited evidence of fresh demand. XRP-linked spot exchange-traded funds recorded zero net flows for three consecutive sessions, according to data referenced from CoinGlass. While the funds showed a $740,410 inflow on Wednesday, the broader pattern suggested buys and sells were largely balanced rather than strongly supportive.
At the same time, the wider liquidation backdrop intensified downside risk. Data referenced from CoinGlass showed long liquidations totaling $889 million over the prior 24 hours, with XRP accounting for roughly $14 million. Such conditions can magnify volatility: if price continues to drift lower, leveraged bullish positions may be forced out, accelerating near-term moves.
Traders typically look for a return to sustained positive ETF inflows as a clearer signal that investors are using weakness to add exposure rather than simply rotating around the spot market.
Separately, Evernorth—an XRP treasury company—made its Wall Street debut this week. Its shares trade under the ticker XRPN and have underperformed since Wednesday, with the post-inflation backdrop cited as a headwind for crypto-linked investments as investors adjusted their interest-rate expectations.
Technical picture deteriorates below key levels
Beyond macro pressure, XRP’s technical outlook weakened after the token fell below its 200-day exponential moving average again on Monday. Trading beneath a widely watched trend indicator can reduce confidence among medium-term investors and increase the likelihood that rallies face selling pressure.
Over the past day, XRP also moved below the $1.32 support level. Analysts and traders now appear to be anchoring near-term downside risk around the $1.25 area, viewed as the next significant demand zone. If sellers keep control and $1.25 fails, attention may shift to $1.10, though that would require breaking the next layer of support first.
In the near term, the question for buyers is whether they can defend $1.25 while inflation-driven rate concerns continue to shape sentiment. A steadier macro tone and broader market improvement would likely be needed to reduce the risk of a deeper correction.
What to watch next
Investors will likely focus on whether XRP can reclaim and hold above the recent technical levels, particularly $1.25, as rate expectations remain a key driver of crypto pricing. Attention also turns to subsequent data releases and Fed-related signals that could further validate—or reverse—traders’ elevated probability for an October rate hike. On the flow side, renewed, consistently positive ETF inflows would be a critical signal that dip-buying is gaining traction.
