Soybean futures were lower in early Tuesday trading, extending losses after contracts ended Monday in the red. The weakness spilled into soyoil and soymeal as traders weighed USDA export logistics, crop-progress updates and expectations for this morning’s U.S. planting and stockpiles data.
Key takeaways
- Soybeans: July futures finished Monday down 17 1/2 cents; early Tuesday trade showed contracts down 2 to 5 cents.
- Catalyst: The market absorbed private export sales reported by USDA alongside crop-emergence and condition figures from NASS.
- Crush complex: Soymeal fell 40 cents to $2.30 and soyoil declined 1 to 96 points as July soyoil futures dropped 223 points.
- Implication: Attention is shifting to the June Acreage and June 1 Grain Stocks reports, which investors are using to reassess demand and supply balance for the new crop cycle.
What drove the move
Early Tuesday, soybean futures were modestly lower, with contracts trading roughly 10 1/4 to 17 1/2 cents below Monday’s settlement levels. The front-month contract, July, also posted 31 delivery notices on the first notice day, signaling continued activity in the nearby contract month.
USDA’s trade data provided support, even as futures traded lower overall. The agency reported a private export sale of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations on Monday morning.
Crop progress and USDA shipment data
Crop development data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service supported a cautious tone. According to NASS, 96% of the U.S. soybean crop had emerged by 6/28, which was 1 percentage point above normal. NASS also reported that 19% of the crop had emerged as of that date, 4 percentage points faster than normal, alongside 4%</ setting pods.
Condition ratings were weaker on the week. NASS said condition ratings fell 1 percentage point to 65%</ good-to-excellent, and the Brugler500 index declined 4 points to 365.
On the export side, USDA’s Federal Grain Inspection Service tallied soybean export shipments of 419,124 MT (or 15.4 million bushels) for the week ending June 25. That level was reported as up 54% from the prior week and 76.7% higher than the same week a year earlier. By destination, Mexico led with 121,835 MT, followed by Japan at 104,589 MT and China at 65,389 MT.
For the 2025/26 marketing year, USDA reported cumulative exports of 37.299 million metric tons (or 1.37 billion bushels), which the data showed are 18.7% below the same period last year.
Oil and meal follow-through
In the broader soy complex, soymeal futures were under pressure, down 40 cents to $2.30 in early trade. Soyoil futures were also lower, slipping 1 to 96 points, with July soyoil reported down 223 points.
Delivery activity also differentiated across the complex. The report showed no deliveries against July soybean meal, while there were 729 deliveries against July bean oil.
What investors are watching next
Markets are poised for fresh U.S. supply inputs. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for the NASS June Acreage report to estimate 85.2 million acres planted this spring. Separately, investors are expecting June 1 Grain Stocks data to show 1.049 billion bushels of soybean stocks.
With soybean futures already trading below Monday’s levels and the crop picture modestly improving on emergence but softening on ratings, the next potential driver is the balance between acre expectations and stockpile trends. Traders will also continue to monitor USDA export coverage and any follow-on sales data as the new-crop marketing outlook is compared against last year’s pace.
