Intel shares have delivered one of the market’s most dramatic large-cap turnarounds, with the stock rising sharply since early January and briefly reaching a higher peak before pulling back in early July. The rally has been driven largely by accelerating demand for processors tied to AI data centers and by investor confidence returning to Intel Foundry, even as the company remains in a crucial earnings-and-execution phase ahead of its next results.
As investors look toward Intel’s second-quarter report on July 23, the key question is whether the company can keep translating revenue momentum—particularly from foundry and data center growth—into improving profitability, rather than seeing confidence fade after a fast repricing.
Key takeaways
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Intel shares have surged over the first half of the year, with a recent pullback after an early July decline.
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The main catalyst has been a rebound in demand tied to AI data center processors alongside stronger growth in Intel Foundry.
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Intel Foundry revenue increased year over year, supporting the market’s view that the manufacturing turnaround is progressing.
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The next test arrives with the July 23 second-quarter earnings report, where investors will focus on foundry growth, margins, and new customer signals.
How Intel’s momentum built
Intel’s rally has not been powered primarily by traditional PC-related chips. Instead, the company’s performance has leaned on two linked themes: higher demand for processors feeding AI data centers and renewed belief that Intel Foundry can deliver on its manufacturing turnaround.
In Intel’s first-quarter results, reported in April, growth in both major engines supported the new narrative. The data center and AI segment revenue rose 22% year over year to $5.1 billion, while Intel Foundry revenue grew 16% year over year to $5.4 billion. By comparison, the PC chip business grew just 1% year over year. Total revenue rose 7% to $13.6 billion, and Intel reported non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.29 after more than doubling.
Intel’s chief executive, Lip-Bu Tan, said the company’s operating reset contributed to a sixth consecutive quarter of revenue ahead of expectations and helped deepen relationships with strategic partners.
Why the foundry turnaround mattered to investors
For years, Intel Foundry has been associated with a cash-consuming effort and lingering doubts about execution. What changed in 2026, according to investors’ shifting interpretation, is that customers increasingly treated the manufacturing progress as on schedule—reducing perceived execution risk and supporting the valuation expansion.
That framing is important because each new manufacturing commitment can be financially meaningful in two ways: it can generate future revenue, and it can serve as evidence to other potential customers that Intel’s factories are capable of handling advanced, high-stakes work. As the market broadened its confidence, the stock’s repricing accelerated.
The stock’s move has also reflected a change in expectations from a gradual slide outlook to a scenario where investors began underwriting a successful transformation within the company’s timeline.
What could derail the comeback next
Despite the momentum, Intel’s valuation implies continued progress beyond the recent surge. With the company priced at roughly $604 billion, investors are effectively treating the transformation as not only achievable but also sustained, even though Intel remains unprofitable on a trailing-12-month basis. In that environment, subsequent quarters matter intensely—particularly because a fast repricing from skepticism to confidence can leave investors more sensitive to any sign that execution is slipping.
Intel shares also faced a cautionary signal early in July. Shares fell about 9% in a single session on July 1 amid a broad pullback in chip stocks, without any company-specific setback cited in the discussion. That kind of move can amplify drawdowns when a stock’s shareholder base includes investors who entered more recently during the rebound.
What to watch in the July 23 results
Intel’s next earnings report, scheduled for July 23, will likely determine whether the current narrative can extend. Based on how investors are currently framing the stock, three areas stand out.
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Foundry revenue trajectory: Continued growth would reinforce the market’s confidence in manufacturing momentum.
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Gross margin direction: Investors will be watching whether margin expansion follows revenue growth, rather than lagging.
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Evidence of customer traction: New customer wins and ongoing partner commitments would help validate the pipeline behind the foundry story.
Put simply, the gap between current revenue levels and today’s valuation expectations is bridged largely by expectations for future contracts and expanding profitability.
Bigger picture for chip investors
The Intel comeback is closely tied to the broader market theme of AI-related compute demand and the shift toward gaining confidence in domestic and allied semiconductor manufacturing capacity. For investors attempting to gain exposure to that demand while limiting the risk of chasing a post-rally trend, the next earnings cycle may offer a clearer view of whether momentum turns into durable financial improvement.
While the stock’s early-year performance has already moved quickly, the next quarter’s results may determine whether Intel can sustain a gradual “prove it over time” path—particularly as markets remain sensitive to both execution signals and macro-driven weakness in semiconductors.
Next, investors will focus on Intel’s second-quarter report on July 23 for updated guidance on foundry growth, margin performance, and customer traction, with the broader chip complex continuing to influence near-term volatility.
