Lab-made gold based on fusion technology is unlikely to disrupt global gold supply or materially influence prices in the foreseeable future, according to Nagham Hassan, Market Analyst at etoro.
The assessment follows an announcement from fusion startup Marathon Fusion claiming its technology could transform a form of mercury into gold. The concept uses high-energy neutrons generated by fusion reactors for nuclear transmutation.
Physics is established, commercial scale is not
Hassan said the underlying physics is well understood, but the key uncertainty is whether the process can become commercially viable and produce enough gold to affect markets.
“Turning mercury into gold may sound like something from science fiction, but the underlying physics is well established. The real question is whether this process can ever become commercially viable and produce enough gold to make a meaningful difference to global supply,” Hassan said.
According to Marathon Fusion, its 2025 modelling indicates the process could theoretically produce about two tonnes of gold annually for every gigawatt of thermal fusion power. That translates to an estimate of roughly five tonnes per year from a plant generating one gigawatt of electricity.
Hassan noted this compares with existing production: the World Gold Council reports global gold mines already produce more than 3,600 tonnes annually.
Barriers include fusion scale-up and radioactive by-products
Beyond potential output limits, Hassan highlighted additional obstacles to commercialisation. Fusion power plants have yet to become commercially operational at scale, he said, while gold produced via the proposed transmutation would carry residual radioactivity.
Marathon Fusion’s simulations, as presented in the announcement, suggest the material could require up to 18 years of storage to meet stricter safety standards before commercial sale. Hassan also pointed to difficulty and expense in producing the specific form of mercury needed for the process.
“The biggest barriers are not just technological. Even under optimistic production scenarios, the amount of gold generated would be limited compared with existing mining output. The additional costs and potential waiting period before the gold could be sold make it difficult to see this becoming a competitive source of supply anytime soon,” Hassan explained.
Different from lab-grown diamonds, analyst says
The announcement has prompted comparisons with lab-grown diamonds, which have disrupted the diamond industry over the past decade. Hassan said the market dynamics differ because diamonds are chemically identical to mined stones and have benefited from industrial scaling.
Hassan cited reported pricing declines in diamond markets, where wholesale prices reportedly fell by approximately 75% to 90% over roughly a decade as manufacturing capacity expanded and costs declined.
For gold, he said there is currently no commercially established industrial process capable of producing large quantities at competitive cost, and the proposed approach depends on technology that is not yet commercialised.
Near-term implications for gold prices seen as limited
For retail investors, Hassan said the development is unlikely to change the near-term outlook for gold supply and prices. Even if the scientific concept is credible, he argued that technological limitations, production costs, the relatively small potential volumes, and radioactive by-products make large-scale commercial production a distant prospect.
“Retail investors should distinguish between a scientific breakthrough and a development that could genuinely influence market prices. There is currently no evidence that fusion-produced gold will increase supply enough to put meaningful pressure on prices. For now, this technology does not change the near-term fundamentals of the gold market,” Hassan concluded.
