Cardano’s network upgrade, the Van Rossem hard fork, is scheduled to take effect tomorrow, sharpening focus on the ADA token as traders look for signs the update can halt the recent slide. ADA was trading at $0.1608 at the time of writing, down 1.0% over the prior 24 hours, while the broader picture remains soft with the token down 4.7% for the week and nearly 5% over the month.
Ahead of the fork, on-chain signals point to accumulation by large holders, but derivatives positioning suggests investors are still split—an alignment that could keep volatility elevated around the upgrade window.
Key takeaways
- Price move: ADA traded around $0.1608, down 1.0% in the last 24 hours, and has been weaker over the week and month.
- Catalyst: The Van Rossem hard fork scheduled for tomorrow, with planned enhancements to Cardano’s Plutus smart contract infrastructure and network efficiency.
- On-chain signal: Wallets holding 100,000 to 100 million ADA control about 25.65 billion ADA, the highest level since February 2023.
- Market implication: Despite whale accumulation, futures metrics remain mixed, indicating traders have not fully shifted risk appetite into a clear long bias.
What drove the move into the hard fork
The main narrative heading into Van Rossem is positioning by major Cardano holders. According to the on-chain data cited in the report, wallets in the 100,000 to 100 million ADA range now hold approximately 25.65 billion ADA—its highest level since February 2023. That has increased attention on whether the upgrade can translate fundamental improvements into renewed buying pressure.
The hard fork is expected to support improvements to Cardano’s Plutus smart contract platform, including reduced execution costs and better overall network efficiency. The upgrade also sets the stage for the planned Leios scaling upgrade, which is expected to enhance transaction throughput in future releases.
That bullish accumulation picture contrasts with retail-scale behavior. Wallets holding fewer than 100 ADA reportedly reduced their combined balances by roughly 0.7% over the past four months, underscoring a divergence between large-holder accumulation and smaller-holder selling or reduced participation.
Derivatives show caution despite higher participation
While spot and on-chain indicators are constructive, the derivatives market remains more restrained. The report said futures open interest climbed to around $445 million on July 16, indicating new capital has flowed into ADA futures ahead of the upgrade.
However, positioning appears uneven. Some derivatives readings have turned supportive, with certain metrics showing positive funding rates that imply traders are willing to pay to maintain long exposure. Other measures still point in the opposite direction, with the weighted funding rate around -0.0067% and the long-to-short ratio near 0.58, suggesting short positions currently outnumber long bets.
For investors, the key implication is that leverage is building but without consensus. That setup can amplify price swings if the market’s expectations for the fork do not quickly convert into sustained upside.
Technical picture: ADA below key averages
From a technical standpoint, ADA remains under pressure. The token is still trading below several key moving averages, indicating the broader trend has not fully turned bullish. According to the levels cited in the report, ADA is below the 50-day exponential moving average near $0.1783, the 100-day EMA around $0.2073, and the 200-day EMA close to $0.2768.
Momentum indicators also suggest a market waiting for confirmation. The report said the Relative Strength Index is hovering around the mid-40s, which typically signals neutral momentum rather than oversold conditions. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence has started to improve, implying bearish momentum has eased, though it has not yet produced a confirmed reversal.
Near-term levels highlighted by the report place the first resistance zone around $0.164 to $0.1665, where the 20-day EMA and Fibonacci retracement areas converge. A move above that range could expose $0.1709 and then $0.176, aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level referenced by multiple technical models.
If ADA instead fails to hold support, the report pointed to an immediate support cluster around $0.1525 to $0.150. Losing that area could shift focus to $0.1465, with $0.138 mentioned as a deeper downside level if selling accelerates.
Bigger picture: upgrade expectations vs. positioning
In the run-up to Van Rossem, the market is balancing two competing forces: large-holder accumulation on the one hand, and cautious—though increasingly engaged—derivatives positioning on the other. If the hard fork delivers meaningful network improvements that traders can price in quickly, ADA could attempt to reclaim nearby resistance. If not, the current technical and funding mix leaves room for continued range trading or renewed downside attempts, particularly if short positioning remains dominant.
Investors will likely watch for post-fork follow-through: whether spot demand improves, how futures funding evolves after the upgrade, and whether ADA can regain the moving-average levels that currently define the downtrend.
Next, the immediate focus is the implementation of the Van Rossem hard fork tomorrow. After that, markets will turn to reaction signals—both technical (whether ADA can clear resistance) and derivatives (whether funding rates and the long-to-short balance shift further toward sustained longs).
