Soybeans edged higher in midday trading on Friday, with futures and cash values posting modest gains as the market looked toward the weekend and weighed fresh export and supply-related updates. The U.S. soybean complex also showed mixed movement across the crush, with soymeal firm and soy oil lower.
Key takeaways
- Soybeans posted midday gains, with the national cash average up and nearby futures modestly higher.
- Catalysts included export activity and USDA-related positioning, including a reported private export sale to China.
- Traders are watching supply-demand signals ahead of upcoming U.S. crop and yield expectations.
- Crush spreads diverged, as soymeal rose while soy oil fell.
What drove the move
Midday price action in soybeans remained contained, with traders largely “squaring up” ahead of the weekend, according to market updates. The cmdtyView national average “Cash Bean” price was reported up 3 cents at $11.32.
On the export front, a private export sale of 238,000 MT of soybeans was reported to China for 2026/27. Wire reports also suggested Chinese buyers took 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Thursday, adding support for the market’s demand narrative.
Market focus also turned to expectations for the upcoming U.S. yield and acreage outlook. A Reuters survey of traders projected the NASS to peg U.S. soybean yield at 52.9 bushels per acre next Wednesday. The survey indicated harvested acres could be 163,000 higher than in the June report, to 84.564 million acres, with production seen at 4.472 billion bushels.
Separately, USDA’s weekly Export Sales report released Thursday showed accumulated sales (shipped and unshipped) at 41.715 MMT, down 19 from last year. Despite the year-over-year decline, the figure was described as 101% of the USDA export forecast, compared with a 103% pace a year ago.
New crop sales were reported at 8.373 MMT, excluding this week’s daily announcements. USDA said this was a 4-year high and 133.9% above the same week last year.
Crush complex: soymeal and soy oil diverged
While soybeans moved slightly higher, the broader complex reflected a split in the crush components. Soymeal futures were reported $1.40 to $1.80 higher to close Thursday. Soy oil, however, was reported 24 points lower to close Thursday, but still trading within a wide range with the day’s reference level given as 59 points higher.
Delivery dynamics also remained quiet overnight. The report said there were no new delivery notices issued against August soybeans overnight, with 15 against August meal and 3 against August bean oil.
International trade: Brazil supply and China demand
Non-U.S. supply and Chinese import demand also informed the market’s backdrop. Brazil soybean exports in July totaled 13.4 MMT, per trade ministry data, up 9.33% year over year but down 7.58% versus a year ago in another comparison described by the report. For August, exports were expected to total 9.74 MMT according to ANEC, which the article said would be 1.63 MMT less than the same period last year.
On China’s import side, soybean imports totaled 11.48 MMT in July, down 1.6% from the same month last year. The report also noted Sinograin, a Chinese stockpiler, will auction off 516,000 MT of imported soybeans on August 12.
Market reaction: where prices stood
As of the latest update in the article, the market’s gains were modest across multiple contracts:
- Aug 26 Soybeans were reported at $11.60 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents.
- Nearby Cash was at $11.36, up 4 1/2 cents.
- Sep 26 Soybeans were at $11.62 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents.
- Nov 26 Soybeans were at $11.80 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents.
- New Crop Cash was at $11.21 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents.
The combination of steady but not aggressive price strength in beans, firmer soymeal, and softer soy oil suggested investors were balancing near-term export support against broader supply expectations and upcoming U.S. crop estimates.
What to watch next: traders will likely turn to the next major U.S. supply outlook step next Wednesday, when NASS is expected to publish yield and production figures. Investors will also watch weekly export sales follow-through and any additional China purchase activity, alongside upcoming auction supply developments tied to Sinograin’s planned sale on August 12.
