US stocks rose in early trading as investors weighed a potential near-term diplomatic breakthrough involving the United States and Iran, alongside fresh economic data. The S&P 500 climbed, the Dow added gains, and the Nasdaq 100 also moved higher, while oil prices fell as expectations increased for renewed access through the Strait of Hormuz. Treasuries softened, with investors continuing to focus on inflation expectations as they position ahead of key central-bank events.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Major US equity indexes traded higher, while West Texas Intermediate crude dropped by more than 1%.
- Catalyst: Reports circulated that a preliminary US-Iran peace agreement could be signed as early as this weekend, potentially easing regional military risk.
- Rate backdrop: Treasury yields were mixed-to-higher, reflecting ongoing concern about sticky inflation expectations.
- Sector split: Chip and software shares were under pressure even as semiconductors rebounded sharply the prior session.
- Next watch: Markets will closely monitor developments around the proposed deal, the scheduled SpaceX trading open, and the upcoming Fed meeting and inflation-sensitive data.
What drove the move
Stocks found support after reports indicated a preliminary US-Iran peace agreement could be signed as early as this weekend. The prospect of an end to military hostilities and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz helped reduce near-term risk premia tied to energy supply disruptions. Under the reported framework, negotiations would then move to more difficult issues, including sanctions, the handling of frozen Iranian assets, and progress on Iranian nuclear matters. Iran also said it would continue to exercise control over the Strait of Hormuz even after a ceasefire arrangement.
In a separate, related development, President Trump said he canceled planned military strikes against Iran, citing ongoing discussions with Iranian leadership. He indicated that the timing and location for any signing of an agreed end to the conflict would be announced shortly, while stating that the US naval blockade would remain in place until the transaction is finalized.
Market reaction across energy, tech, and rates
The oil complex moved sharply lower on the same sentiment shift. WTI crude prices were down more than 1% as traders priced in the likelihood of improved access through the Strait of Hormuz in the near term.
Technology trade was less uniform. Chip and software stocks were undercut, countering the positive momentum from the prior session. Semiconductors had surged after signs that AI-related spending continued following Oracle’s quarterly results, which pointed to higher capital expenditures driven by increased data center demand. However, in the current session, chip stocks were mostly lower, with major names such as AMD and Intel still showing gains despite the broader pullback.
Software equities also weakened, with Adobe falling after the company’s CFO said he would leave on June 15, following earlier announcements about changes in leadership. ServiceNow, Atlassian, and Workday were also down more than 3%, reflecting ongoing investor sensitivity to corporate management and earnings outlooks in the sector.
Meanwhile, rates traded with a cautious tone. September 10-year Treasury notes were weaker and the 10-year yield rose, supported by higher 10-year inflation expectations even as oil prices declined. Investors appeared to remain focused on inflation staying elevated, suggesting that the move in energy markets was not fully translating into a broader easing in inflation expectations. European sovereign yields were lower, including the German Bund and UK gilt.
Macro inputs and notable corporate items
Economic data added a modest tailwind for sentiment. According to the University of Michigan, the US Consumer Sentiment index rose by 4.1 points to 48.9, beating expectations for a rise to 46.0.
Investors were also preparing for the debut of SpaceX on public markets. Nasdaq said SpaceX shares would be released for quotation at 9:50 a.m. ET, with regular trading potentially taking time to begin. SpaceX is expected to start trading after raising a record $75 billion in its IPO on Thursday, and the report said the stock was expected to open substantially above its IPO price of $135. Even so, several space-linked names were trading lower, including EchoStar and Rocket Lab.
In index rebalancing activity, Nasdaq announced that certain stocks would join the Nasdaq 100 effective at the market open on June 22, including Astera Labs, CoreWeave, Nebius Group, and Rocket Lab. The announcement also listed names set to leave the index, such as Charter Communications, Cognizant Technology Solutions, Insmed, Verisk Analytics, and Zscaler. Such moves can influence near-term trading as funds and ETFs rebalance.
On the earnings calendar, multiple companies were scheduled to report on June 12, including America’s Car-Mart, Atlantic International, Friedman Industries, and several others across financials, industrials, food, and real estate.
Bigger picture: what investors will watch next
With equities supported by the prospect of de-escalation in the Middle East, attention will likely shift to whether diplomatic talks progress from preliminary agreement to definitive terms—and whether energy supply expectations hold. On rates and policy, investors will remain sensitive to signs that inflation expectations are cooling or staying firm, particularly as the next Federal Reserve meeting approaches on June 16–17. In parallel, market participants will monitor early trading conditions for SpaceX and the broader tech tape for follow-through after the prior session’s AI-driven semiconductor optimism.
