Corn futures were marginally higher across the front months on Friday, with prices up between 1 and 2 cents. The latest uptick followed reported export and USDA supply updates, alongside weather forecasts pointing to light rainfall over parts of the U.S. Midwest.
Cash corn, tracked by the CmdtyView national average, rose to $3.81, while the new-crop cash price edged up to $3.96 1/2. July corn was last reported at $4.13, September at $4.21 1/2, and December at $4.40 3/4.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Corn futures rose 1 to 2 cents across nearby contracts.
- Catalyst: Export sales figures and USDA WASDE adjustments, particularly around old-crop balance sheets, were in focus.
- Weather input: NOAA’s seven-day rainfall outlook shows heavier totals in parts of the East and lighter amounts over portions of the western Corn Belt and northern Plains.
- Implication: The market is balancing steady export progress and supply changes against regionally uneven moisture expectations.
Export sales and the USDA balance sheet
Export Sales data showed the old-crop export commitment total at 82.767 million metric tons, reported as 98% of USDA’s newly updated export projection. The pace of sales was described as matching the 98% average sales rate.
Shipments totaled 64.5 million metric tons, or 76% of USDA’s figure, and were reported to be slightly behind the 78% average shipping pace. For new-crop business, the report put total commitments at 4.124 million metric tons, representing a 31.6% increase compared with the same point last year.
Meanwhile, USDA’s monthly WASDE report updated the old-crop and next marketing year supply-demand outlook. Old-crop ending stocks were set at 2.145 billion bushels, up by 3 million bushels from the prior month. Corn used for ethanol was lowered by 25 million bushels, while exports were increased by 25 million bushels, offsetting that reduction in the balance sheet. USDA also raised imports by 3 million bushels.
The report said the 3 million bushel import change carried through to the next marketing year, lifting next-year ending stocks expectations to 1.96 billion bushels, also up by 3 million bushels.
South American production adjustments
USDA also revised production expectations for Brazil and Argentina. Brazil production was raised by 3 million metric tons to 138 million metric tons, while Argentina was increased by 2 million metric tons to 61 million metric tons. Over the last two months, the combined output revisions were described as totaling a 15 million metric ton hike for the two countries.
These changes matter for corn pricing because expanded South American supply can affect global export availability and influence the relative competitiveness of U.S. corn in world markets.
Weather outlook and where rain is expected
NOAA’s seven-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) indicated expected precipitation totals ranging from 2 to 4 inches from Missouri to Ohio. Parts of eastern Iowa and Wisconsin were forecast to receive 1 to 2 inches.
In contrast, the western half of Iowa, Minnesota, and much of the northern Plains west of the Missouri River were projected to see little to no rainfall in the same period. For corn markets, uneven moisture distribution can shift near-term concerns around crop development and regional yield potential.
What to watch next
Traders will likely keep close attention on further export announcements and USDA updates to the supply-demand outlook, particularly if shipping pace or demand trends change. Weather remains another key driver, with the next rainfall signals for the drier parts of the Corn Belt and northern Plains potentially influencing near-term contract direction.
