IPO activity is showing signs of softness in recent months, but capital raised remains strong, according to Nasdaq’s analysis of its “IPO Pulse” indicators for the United States and Stockholm. The U.S. measure slowed to a six-month low in September, while Stockholm’s pulse stayed near recent highs—suggesting that disruptions may be delaying listings rather than ending them.
Nasdaq attributed the slowdown in the U.S. to renewed geopolitical and macro pressures that have pushed up inflation concerns and market expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. Higher interest-rate expectations have also fed into valuation headwinds that can weigh on IPO timing, even as demand for AI-related infrastructure continues to support parts of the technology market.
Key takeaways
- U.S. IPO Pulse softened: Nasdaq said the Nasdaq IPO Pulse slowed to a six-month low in September.
- Catalyst was macro, not only deal flow: renewed conflict risk helped keep energy prices elevated, contributing to higher inflation expectations and firmer expectations for Fed action.
- Capital raised stayed resilient: operating companies raised $34 billion in the third quarter, bringing total funds raised through three quarters to $146 billion.
- Stockholm remains comparatively strong: Nasdaq Stockholm’s IPO Pulse hovered just below recent highs, with activity supported by ongoing listings and record-level annual capital raised.
- Implication for investors: the current slowdown appears insufficient to signal a cyclical IPO downturn, but the wider IPO window may depend on whether rate expectations and disruptions ease further.
What drove the move
Nasdaq linked the deceleration in the U.S. IPO Pulse to renewed geopolitical disruptions that undermined earlier hopes of stabilization. The ceasefire in the Iran conflict—described by Nasdaq as “going strong” in June—later collapsed, leaving no clear end in sight.
That renewed uncertainty has contributed to upward pressure on energy prices, which in turn adds to inflation concerns. At the same time, Nasdaq pointed to strong demand for AI data center components, a factor that has supported parts of the broader equity and growth outlook.
According to Nasdaq’s write-up, the combination of inflation pressure and resilient economic conditions shifted investor expectations for Federal Reserve policy. It said the probability of a rate hike this year rose from about a two-thirds chance in June (on average) to a certainty, after the Fed delivered a 25 basis-point move last month and projected another hike later in the year.
With the rate outlook firming, market yields moved higher. Nasdaq cited a rise in 10-year Treasury yields from around 4.5% in June to 5.3%—around highs since 2002—by the end of September. Higher yields typically increase the discount rate used to value future cash flows and can therefore affect IPO pricing appetite and timing.
Market reaction inside the IPO data
Nasdaq said the higher-rate environment mechanically pressures several components embedded in its IPO Pulse framework. It highlighted that the year-over-year change in the Fed funds rate is a drag on the index. It also noted valuation-related effects tied to enterprise value dynamics and equity pricing behavior.
The analysis pointed to slower growth in the S&P 500 enterprise value-to-sales ratio as higher rates raise the discount rate and can reduce the value of existing debt. Nasdaq also stated that S&P 500 price growth has slowed somewhat due to rate headwinds to valuations, even with strong earnings growth.
The result, Nasdaq said, was a U.S. IPO Pulse decline to a six-month low in September. At the same time, operating company IPO activity in the third quarter slowed to 26 companies, matching the count in the first quarter—though Nasdaq emphasized that the first quarter had already been shaped by a distinct set of disruptions.
Crucially, Nasdaq argued that the current deceleration is not yet comparable to past downswings that preceded a cyclical downturn in IPO activity. In its view, the recent decline is “far milder” than historical episodes linked to weaker IPO conditions.
Why raised capital still matters
Nasdaq’s data suggests the headline slowdown in the number of listings is not translating into a collapse in issuance appetite. Operating companies raised $34 billion in the third quarter, Nasdaq said, exceeding the total capital raised in each of the years 2022, 2023, and 2024. It also noted that the first quarter—despite having the same number of operating company IPOs—raised only $10 billion.
Deal concentration played a major role: Nasdaq said a large share of third-quarter proceeds came from SK Hynix’s Nasdaq-listed ADR, SKHY, which raised $26.5 billion.
Across the first three quarters, Nasdaq reported that operating companies raised $146 billion in IPOs, with 89% listed on Nasdaq. It said the total surpassed 2021’s full-year capital raise of $141 billion. The report also referenced market expectations for “historic IPOs” in the fourth quarter, citing plans that could include additional large listings.
Bigger picture: U.S. vs. Stockholm
While the U.S. IPO pulse slowed, Nasdaq said the Stockholm IPO Pulse remained more stable. It described the Nasdaq Stockholm indicator as hovering just below recent highs, which it interpreted as continued support from the cyclical drivers of IPO activity into early 2027.
Nasdaq reported that IPO activity in Stockholm stayed robust, with six new listings in the third quarter following seven in the second quarter. By capital raised, it said Nasdaq Stockholm raised €160 million in the third quarter, after €380 million in the second quarter. For the year, it said capital raised by Nasdaq Stockholm was nearly €600 million, already surpassing full-year totals for 2022 and 2023.
Nasdaq concluded that—despite ongoing disruptions—both IPO Pulse measures point to a supportive environment for IPO activity into early next year. It also suggested that if disruptions fade further, the IPO window could widen, allowing a stronger re-acceleration in deal flow.
What to watch next: Investors are likely to focus on whether higher Treasury yields and tighter Fed expectations persist, alongside any progress on geopolitical risk that could ease inflation pressure. The next market checkpoints include upcoming Fed communications and economic data that could alter the rate path—along with company-specific catalysts as fourth-quarter listings approach.
