Cotton futures posted gains across the curve in Thursday’s session, with contracts finishing higher by 12 to 24 points as crude oil rose and the U.S. dollar firmed. Attention also turned to U.S. export activity, where data pointed to a marketing-year low for net cancellations, even as new-crop sales picked up.
Key takeaways
- Price move: October 2026 cotton settled higher to 81.96 cents, with December 2026 at 83.16 cents and March 2027 at 84.89 cents.
- Catalyst: Export Sales data showed net cancellation of 55,855 RB for the 2025/26 crop week ending July 31, alongside new-crop additions.
- Market implication: Despite weaker old-crop demand signals from cancellations, buyers’ activity in new-crop business supported the futures uptick.
- Related drivers: Crude oil rose $3.01 per barrel and the U.S. dollar index increased, adding to the broader commodity/FX backdrop for cotton.
- Supply signals to watch: ICE certified cotton stocks held steady at 84,632 bales, keeping attention on how quickly any demand shifts flow through to inventories.
What drove the move
Export Sales data highlighted a mixed demand picture for U.S. cotton. According to the report, the week of July 30 (marketing year ended on 7/31) recorded net cancellation of 55,855 RB of 2025/26 cotton—described as a marketing-year low in the data.
At the same time, the same weekly report showed 242,052 RB of new-crop business for 2025/26 cotton, which was noted as the third largest for that marketing year. Vietnam emerged as the top destination with 132,400 RB reported for new crop sales, while Turkey accounted for 41,600 RB.
Shipments totaled 222,830 RB for the week, with Vietnam taking the largest portion at 88,900 RB. The report also listed 35,500 RB headed to Pakistan and 19,500 MT shipped to Turkey.
Beyond export data, the broader macro tape leaned supportive for commodities. Crude oil was reported higher by $3.01 per barrel, while the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.269, factors that can influence investor positioning across global raw materials and the competitiveness of U.S. shipments abroad.
Market reaction in futures and cash indicators
ICE-traded cotton contracts ended the session higher. October 2026 cotton closed at 81.96 cents, up 12 points. December 2026 cotton settled at 83.16 cents, up 14 points, while March 2027 finished at 84.89 cents, up 18 points.
The Seam reported 2,277 bales sold on the 8/5 sale at an average price of 80.64 cents, providing another snapshot of nearby pricing conditions. In contrast, the Cotlook A Index declined by 70 points on August 5 to 93.00 cents.
On the supply side, ICE certified cotton stocks were steady, with the certified stocks level at 84,632 bales as of Wednesday. The Adjusted World Price was raised by 163 points on Thursday to 66.29 cents per pound, signaling a higher benchmark for global cotton pricing relative to prior levels.
How traders may interpret the signals
The standout tension in Thursday’s data was the contrast between old-crop cancellations and new-crop sales. Net cancellations reaching a marketing-year low typically raises concerns about near-term export demand for the current crop year. However, the sizable volume of new-crop business—along with strong shipments—suggests that buyers may be shifting purchases forward rather than stepping away entirely.
The buyer mix also mattered. Vietnam’s prominence in both new sales and shipments points to continued demand from key importers, while Turkey’s reported volumes indicate ongoing participation despite the uneven cancellation pattern.
Investors watching cotton futures may treat this as a setup where price strength can persist in the presence of strong forward demand, even as near-term cancellation headlines remind the market to stay selective on timing and crop-year balance.
Bigger picture and what to watch next
With cotton stocks unchanged at 84,632 bales on the certified ICE measure and futures gaining across multiple maturities, the next steps for the market likely hinge on whether export activity continues to show net demand emerging for the new crop while cancellations stabilize.
Traders will also look for continued updates linking commodity momentum—such as crude oil and the U.S. dollar—to cotton’s ability to sustain higher contract settlements. Upcoming developments to monitor include further weekly U.S. Export Sales reports, ongoing changes in ICE inventory levels, and the next rounds of international pricing benchmarks like the Cotlook A Index and the Adjusted World Price.
