Corn futures traded lower on Thursday, extending Wednesday’s slide as selling pressure hit front-month contracts. The U.S. market was also looking ahead to the next round of USDA export sales data, a key catalyst for sentiment in the crop complex.
At the Wednesday close, most contracts were down by roughly a penny to 5 3/4 cents, with the front months absorbing the majority of the decline. Cash corn in the CmdtyView national average fell to $4.07, down 5 1/2 cents.
Key takeaways
- Corn futures weakened: September 26 corn closed at $4.36 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents, with other maturities also lower.
- Catalyst in focus: Traders are awaiting USDA export sales figures for the week ending July 30.
- Positioning signal: Open interest declined in the September contracts, while much of the rest of the board saw higher open interest, suggesting new selling interest.
- Ethanol and weather inputs: Weekly ethanol production eased, while NOAA forecasts point to widespread rainfall across the Midwest.
- Implication for markets: The combination of near-term demand signals and weather-driven supply expectations is likely to keep price moves reactive.
What drove the move
Price action in corn remained pressured after Wednesday’s broad-based decline. The data on open interest suggested shifting participation: September open interest fell by 12,845 contracts as some positions rolled, while open interest across the rest of the curve rose by 15,476 contracts, a pattern consistent with traders adding exposure—particularly on the sell side.
Beyond futures positioning, investors are also watching demand indicators tied to exports and domestic crush fundamentals. USDA’s export sales report is scheduled to be released shortly, with market expectations calling for old-crop corn sales in the range of 200,000 to 600,000 metric tons for the week ending July 30. For the 2026/27 crop year, estimates are centered around 0.7 to 1.2 million metric tons.
Related supply-and-demand signals
Weekly U.S. ethanol statistics offered a mixed set of signals for corn demand expectations. According to weekly EIA data for the week of July 31, ethanol production totaled 1.107 million barrels per day, down 26,000 barrels per day from the prior week.
Inventories declined as well: stocks drew by 202,000 barrels to 24.524 million barrels. Ethanol exports came in at 200,000 barrels per day, up 63,000 barrels per day week over week. Meanwhile, refiner stocks fell by 3,000 barrels per day to 936,000 barrels per day.
Separately, the weather outlook added another layer for traders assessing near-term crop conditions and potential basis dynamics. The NOAA 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast calls for rain across much of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio, with rainfall totals approaching 1 inch and up to 4 inches in some locations. Wetter conditions can affect fieldwork timelines and short-term agronomy expectations, which in turn can influence corn pricing sentiment.
Market reaction: where prices settled
By the Wednesday close, most key corn contracts were lower by similar magnitudes. September 26 corn closed at $4.36 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents. December 26 corn finished at $4.60, also down 5 1/2 cents. March 27 corn closed at $4.75 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents.
Cash levels moved lower as well. Nearby cash corn was quoted at $4.07 1/1, down 5 1/2 cents. New-crop cash was at $4.10 3/8, down 6 cents.
In early Thursday trading, corn price action remained slightly negative, with prices down by about 1 to 2 cents shortly after the open.
What to watch next
Traders are likely to focus first on USDA export sales, which can quickly shift expectations for old-crop demand and affect how investors price the balance of the marketing year. Near-term follow-through in ethanol data and any updates to the rainfall forecast could further influence crop-condition assumptions and logistics. With additional macro and rate sensitivity always in the background for commodities, attention will also stay on how the market calibrates to demand signals versus supply expectations over the coming sessions.
