Bitcoin edged higher on Thursday and tracked a largely steady tone across crypto markets, even as US equities hovered near record highs. The largest cryptocurrency rose modestly over the past 24 hours to trade near $64,684, while the broader CoinMarketCap 20 Index gained 0.33%, with investors focused on macro developments ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting.
Market pricing also reflected ongoing attention to geopolitical and policy signals, including reports around a potential agreement related to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while traders continued to weigh how monetary policy expectations could influence risk appetite for digital assets.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin rose about 0.22% to around $64,684 over 24 hours as the broader crypto complex remained mixed.
- Futures positioning improved, with derivatives data pointing to more constructive positioning beneath the surface.
- Bitcoin’s longer-term performance still diverges from equities, despite an elevated correlation that persists.
- XRP weakened while Ethereum and Solana remained more subdued in their own leverage dynamics.
- Monetary policy remains a key overhang as markets continue to price a potential rate increase in September.
What drove the move
Bitcoin’s uptick was incremental rather than trend-breaking, but derivatives indicators suggested improving sentiment among traders. According to Research Analyst Thahbib Rahman at Block Scholes, the major driver behind the near-term stabilization was not a sudden change in Bitcoin’s macro narrative, but rather a gradual shift in how market participants are positioning for upside.
Rahman also highlighted a key structural issue: despite US equities trading close to record territory, Bitcoin has not matched the same bullish momentum. In his view, the divergence has widened as stocks extended their rally while Bitcoin lagged, and the gap has become more pronounced during the latest leg of equity strength.
Correlation with equities remains elevated
Rahman said the relationship between Bitcoin and US risk assets has not fully broken. He pointed to a rolling 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 that remains historically elevated at around 45%.
However, he argued that the divergence reflects participation and sensitivity rather than a complete decoupling: Bitcoin has appeared to join rallies less consistently and has declined more sharply during downturns, which has contributed to weaker longer-term performance versus equities.
Market reaction: futures and options activity
Derivatives data pointed to a more constructive setup for Bitcoin, even though similar improvements earlier in the month did not always persist.
According to the report, the long-short taker volume ratio turned bullish for the first time in at least a week, with long positions accounting for nearly 61% of market orders. Bitcoin futures open interest also increased to roughly 759,000 BTC, suggesting that participation was broadening.
Still, analysts cautioned that past open interest increases since early June have been short-lived, with open interest often slipping back toward about 740,000 BTC. The options market offered another clue: traders have increasingly accumulated bullish call options at higher strike prices.
Among the most active Deribit contracts were Bitcoin calls at $80,000 and $96,000, a sign that some traders were looking beyond current levels and paying for upside exposure.
Broader crypto performance: XRP weak, Ethereum firmer
Across the wider market, price action was mixed.
XRP fell 1.8% over the last 24 hours, extending signs of weakness. The report noted that open interest climbed 1.7% to 2.35 billion tokens while XRP traded near $1.04, its lowest level since early July.
Ethereum, by contrast, gained 1.5% over the same period. Open interest also rose, increasing 0.53% to $26.77 billion, indicating that activity remained present even as leverage dynamics shifted.
Solana continued to unwind leverage. Futures open interest declined again, dropping to 61.31 million tokens after exceeding 76.5 million in late June, according to the report.
Bigger picture: monetary policy expectations
Monetary policy expectations remained the key theme behind the risk appetite for crypto, according to Block Scholes’ Rahman. He said the relief from the Federal Reserve not delivering a hike at its latest meeting did not translate into a strong enough catalyst for a sustained “crypto bid,” with the effect potentially muted by what markets still expect from later in the year.
Even after the Fed held rates, traders are still pricing about a 65% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase in September, keeping pressure on high-beta assets that tend to respond to liquidity conditions.
Rahman also pointed to seasonal dynamics that can influence activity levels around key events. He suggested that crypto volatility may remain subdued into the next FOMC meeting in September, noting that uncertainty around this year’s Jackson Hole symposium is greater due to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s reluctance to provide forward guidance.
What to watch next: Investors will likely focus on whether improved derivatives positioning in Bitcoin—particularly options skew toward higher strikes—can be sustained as the market moves closer to September. Upcoming catalysts include additional US macro releases and further Fed communication, which could reprice the likelihood of rate moves and shift risk sentiment across crypto.
