Bitcoin slipped on Monday, trading around $74,685 after extending its weekly losing streak to five straight weeks. The drop comes as investors weigh softer institutional demand via US spot exchange-traded funds and a renewed expectation for tighter US monetary policy following stronger-than-expected labor data.
With the market still below the 50-week Simple Moving Average at $75,222, analysts say sellers retain technical control—leaving the next focus on key support levels near $70,000 and, if pressure persists, the longer-term 200-week moving average around $68,031.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Bitcoin was trading near $74,685, extending a five-week decline and remaining below the 50-week SMA at $75,222.
- Catalyst: US spot Bitcoin ETF flows weakened, with net outflows totaling $1.28 billion last week, alongside firmer expectations for restrictive rates after strong employment data.
- Implication: Persistent ETF withdrawals can reinforce selling pressure, while higher-for-longer rate expectations may limit near-term risk appetite for cryptocurrencies.
- Key levels to watch: Traders are watching $70,000 support first, then the 200-week SMA near $68,031 if declines deepen.
What drove Bitcoin lower
Institutional demand weakened further through the ETF channel. According to SoSoValue, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs posted combined net outflows of $1.28 billion last week. The figure also marked the largest weekly withdrawals since late June, and it followed a second consecutive week of negative flows.
Spot ETFs have become a key access point for many institutional investors, and persistent withdrawals can translate into more systematic selling pressure. With technical conditions also deteriorating, the combination can reduce the probability of a quick rebound.
Macro factors added to the uncertainty. The latest US employment data strengthened the case for tighter monetary policy, shifting investor expectations toward a higher probability of further rate increases. According to CME FedWatch figures, traders assigned an approximately 80.5% probability of a December interest rate hike, up from 72.8% before the employment report.
Higher interest rates generally tighten financial conditions and can be a headwind for speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies, by lifting the opportunity cost of holding riskier investments.
Market reaction and technical signals
Bitcoin fell by 4.47% last week, keeping the broader momentum bearish and extending the slide to five consecutive weeks. The weekly close below the 50-week SMA at $75,222 was viewed as a meaningful technical setback, particularly because the moving average has acted as a reference level for market participants.
On Monday, BTC was trading near $73,700, still below the 50-week average. The near-term trading implication is that rebounds may face resistance while the price remains under that trend line.
If the correction continues, analysts flagged $70,000 as the first major psychological support area. A sustained break below that level would raise the risk of a deeper move toward the 200-week SMA near $68,031.
Momentum indicators suggest bullish pressure has weakened. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) was near 48, approaching the oversold threshold of 30—conditions that often align with declining momentum but do not necessarily guarantee an immediate reversal. Meanwhile, the weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remained positive, but declining bars indicated that upward momentum is gradually fading.
What investors are watching next
Market participants are likely to monitor ETF flow updates for confirmation on whether institutional demand is stabilizing or worsening. Another week of sizable withdrawals would potentially reinforce the current bearish setup and keep downward pressure intact.
Investors will also be watching the path of US rates as traders reassess the Federal Reserve’s outlook. With probability estimates for a December hike elevated after the jobs report—per CME FedWatch—the duration and restrictiveness of policy remain a central variable for risk assets.
On the technical side, reclaiming key trend measures would be needed to improve the recovery odds. Traders following moving averages noted that regaining levels such as the 200-day exponential moving average could open the door for further upside toward the 100-day and 50-day averages. However, failure to regain those benchmarks may leave Bitcoin vulnerable to continued losses if ETF outflows persist and macro conditions continue to support a hawkish policy narrative.
Next on the watch list for Bitcoin is whether spot ETF outflows moderate and whether incoming economic data supports or challenges expectations for restrictive policy. Traders will also focus on price behavior around $75,222 in the near term, with $70,000 and the 200-week SMA near $68,031 likely to define the lower boundary if selling pressure continues.
