Corn prices were lower in Thursday morning trading, with futures down modestly after Wednesday’s session ended in declines. While late-day strength helped limit the drop in some contracts, the market started the new day on a softer note amid a busy calendar of export and production data.
Key takeaways
- Corn futures and nearby cash were down in early Thursday trading, reversing some late-session firmness from Wednesday.
- EIA data showed stable ethanol production while stocks and refiner inputs rose.
- Investors await export sales later Thursday, with traders looking for meaningful 2026/27 sales.
- Additional supply signals emerged from Canada’s initial production figures and a South Korea import tender.
What drove the move
Thursday’s weakness followed a mixed overnight-to-morning setup. Wednesday’s futures ended with losses across the board, prompting a cautious start for the market even as some contracts gained traction late in the session.
The latest U.S. energy-sector data added to the broader supply-demand picture. According to the weekly EIA report, ethanol production averaged 1.099 million barrels per day for the week of 9/4, matching the prior week. That level remained 4.17% higher than the same week last year.
EIA also reported higher stocks and processing activity. Stocks increased by 33,000 barrels to 25.22 million barrels, which the report said was 11.58% above the same week a year earlier. Refiner inputs rose by 3,000 barrels per day to 911,000 barrels per day, while exports were up 14,000 barrels per day to 161,000 bpd.
In agricultural supply data, Stats Canada released its initial production figures. The agency reported Canadian corn output at 16.55 MMT, up 11.3% from last year. On the import side, a South Korean buyer reportedly purchased 134,000 MT of corn in an overnight tender, adding a further demand datapoint for the global market.
Market reaction
In early Thursday trading, the CmdtyView national average Cash Corn was down 1 1/2 cents at $4.89. Futures also pointed lower, with weakness relatively contained compared with larger down days.
The reported closing and early moves included:
- Dec 26 corn closed at $5.34 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents, and was indicated down 3 3/4 cents at the time of reporting.
- Nearby cash was cited at $4.89, down 1 1/2 cents.
- Mar 27 corn closed at $5.48 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents, and was indicated down 4 cents at the time of reporting.
- May 27 corn closed at $5.55 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents, and was indicated down 3 3/4 cents at the time of reporting.
Open interest also increased on Wednesday, rising by 7,449 contracts. That suggested continued positioning even as prices settled lower, leaving traders focused on whether the next wave of export demand data can counterbalance the supply signals coming from production trends.
What investors are watching next
One of the primary catalysts ahead is Export Sales data due later Thursday. Traders were looking for total 2026/27 corn sales in the week of 9/10 in a range of 0.7 to 2 MMT. The market will likely weigh whether demand is accelerating enough to offset the bearish tilt from higher production expectations and increased ethanol inventory levels.
For near-term price discovery, investors will also watch how global import activity evolves, particularly in markets like South Korea where reported purchases can quickly shift near-term balance expectations. On the U.S. side, the relationship between ethanol production, stocks, and crush demand remains a key monitor for corn fundamentals.
Thursday’s data flow—starting with export sales—will set the tone for whether corn stabilizes after Wednesday’s declines or extends the early-session slide.
