Cardano’s ADA traded around $0.25 on April 10, resting near a year-to-date low even as the network rolled out the Midnight mainnet upgrade. The token has been pressured by a broader market backdrop and a historically quiet on-chain environment, after touching an all-time low of $0.2168 earlier this year. The looming Leios upgrade, slated for June with a testnet first, keeps investors focused on what comes next for Cardano’s ecosystem.
Key takeaways
- Price move: ADA near $0.25, near a yearly trough and well off its 2021-2022 highs.
- Catalyst: The Leios upgrade is planned for June, with testnet launching first and mainnet later in the year, promising faster processing through parallelized validation structures.
- Implication: Despite milestones like Midnight and partnerships forming on the network, activity remains subdued, highlighting a disconnect between development progress and on-chain usage.
What drove the move
According to Invezz, Cardano’s development track has included progress on both functional upgrades and ecosystem expansion, even as price action has paused. Midnight, the network’s privacy-focused sidechain, has already fostered partnerships intended to extend on-chain tokenization and DeFi activity. Momentum Bank plans to tokenize assets on Cardano’s network, with other collaborations spanning Sundae Labs, Fluid Tokens, Houdini Swap and SecondSwap, illustrating a strategy to anchor real-world use cases to the chain.
The Leios upgrade represents Cardano’s most significant network enhancement since inception. When activated, Leios is expected to introduce parallel processing with specialized block types—ranking blocks, endorsement blocks and validation committees—aimed at increasing throughput to withstand thousands of transactions per second. The upgrade is designed to boost speed and efficiency on the mainnet, a potential relief for developers and enterprises weighing Cardano against alternative layer-1 platforms.
Beyond Leios, Cardano’s broader roadmap under the Pentad proposal continues to emphasize expanding infrastructure with new oracles, stablecoins and analytics tools. Notably, Cardano integrated Pyth Network as an oracle in December, followed by adding Dune Analytics and USDCx to the ecosystem. In parallel, cumulative activity has gained some traction: Cardano surpassed 120 million transactions, and VolatilityShares launched the first Cardano futures ETFs, signaling investor interest beyond base-layer activity.
On the funding and scale side, Cardano’s on-chain metrics have remained modest relative to peers. DeFi Llama’s data shows the network’s total value locked (TVL) sitting at about $137 million, a fraction of what is seen on other chains such as Solana or Binance Smart Chain. Cardano’s stablecoin supply has risen to about $48 million, again well below major networks—Ethereum’s stablecoin footprint dwarfs that level, while Solana and Tron also report substantially higher figures. For perspective, the latter, more liquid ecosystems routinely report hundreds of millions to tens of billions in stablecoins and TVL. Data from DeFi Llama also notes that Cardano has generated roughly $60,700 in DeFi revenue in March, the lowest in years, with on-chain fees declining sharply from last year’s peak.
These activity metrics underpin a broader narrative about Cardano’s market position. With a market capitalization north of $9 billion, the network still relies heavily on development milestones and ecosystem announcements to move sentiment. The combination of a historically low on-chain usage backdrop and a soft price ladder has led some market observers to label Cardano a “ghost chain” at times, even as the network accumulates milestones and partnerships.
Market reaction
Pricing behavior around ADA signals a balance between anticipation of Leios and ongoing concerns about on-chain demand. The weekly chart shows a marked pullback from a high near $3 in August 2021 to the current vicinity of $0.25. The price recently slipped below a key support at roughly $0.2825—the lowest level seen since August 2024—and remains below the 50-day moving average. The technical backdrop includes an oversold RSI, meaning momentum may be fragile, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) has climbed to 34, indicating a strengthening downtrend. If selling pressure persists, the next psychological level around $0.20 could come into focus.
Analysts and traders are weighing the upgrade’s timing against the pace of on-chain activity. While Leios may unlock higher throughput and attract new use cases, many investors want to see concrete upticks in transactions, DeFi engagement and tokenized real-world assets to catalyze a meaningful price recovery. The absence of a rapid uptick in activity underscores the risk that the upgrade could be priced in before any sustained growth occurs.
What analysts are saying
Market participants acknowledge the Leios upgrade as a meaningful technical inflection point, but opinions diverge on near-term price prospects. With Midnight and the broader Pentad program advancing, some investors see potential for a renewed narrative around Cardano’s capabilities in privacy-enhanced oracles and asset tokenization. Others caution that without a clear, accelerating utilization cycle, ADA could remain undersubscribed in the near term, even as developers continue to push forward with ecosystem tools and partnerships. The ongoing alignment between technical upgrades and real-world adoption remains the key variable driving sentiment.
Bigger picture
Cardano’s path highlights a broader theme in crypto: the tension between development milestones and actual network usage. The Leios upgrade and Midnight sidechain illustrate a concerted effort to boost scalability and privacy, aligning Cardano more closely with the needs of developers and enterprise users. Yet, the on-chain activity metrics—TVL, stablecoin supply and DeFi revenue—remain subdued relative to other networks, underscoring a gap between technological potential and practical deployment.
From a macro perspective, the cadence of rate moves, inflation data and central-bank policy will continue to influence risk appetite for layer-1 tokens, including ADA. As investors weigh the potential benefits of faster processing and deeper ecosystem integration against the need for tangible utilization, Cardano’s success will depend on translating upgrades into measurable on-chain activity and broader user adoption.
Closing: what to watch next
Looking ahead, the Leios testnet is expected in June, with mainnet activation later in the year. Investors will be watching for concrete signs of increased on-chain activity—transaction volumes, new DeFi protocols, and the uptake of Midnight and other ecosystem initiatives. Additional milestones, such as further oracle integrations, continued asset tokenization partnerships and the evolution of stablecoin usage, will help determine whether Cardano can convert development momentum into a sustained price re-pricing. For now, traders will remain attentive to how ADA behaves around the $0.20–$0.25 zone and whether the upgrade catalysts can unlock a meaningful shift in market sentiment.
Sources: Invezz; DeFi Llama data; network announcements surrounding Midnight and the Leios upgrade.
Data shows Cardano’s on-chain metrics and milestone announcements are shaping the near-term outlook, but investor interpretation will hinge on actual adoption and utilization in the months ahead.
