XRP is trading around $1.50, but the token has so far failed to reclaim its late-August peak near $1.70, despite continued buying from US spot XRP exchange-traded funds. Investors are now focused on whether demand can overpower nearby sell pressure between roughly $1.54 and $1.70, or whether rallies are being met by supply from holders taking profits.
Key takeaways
- Price move: XRP is holding near $1.50 but remains below the late-August peak near $1.70.
- Catalyst: US spot XRP ETFs attracted about $307.9 million in Q3, with cumulative inflows nearing $1.8 billion, according to SoSoValue data.
- What investors are watching: The $1.54 to $1.70 zone is the next key test for whether new demand can change the token’s supply-demand balance.
- Implication: Flow data suggests ETF demand is not automatically setting the clearing price, raising attention on who supplies liquidity during rallies.
ETF flows rise, but they haven’t forced a breakout
Data from SoSoValue shows US spot XRP ETFs pulled in roughly $307.9 million in Q3, including about $121.4 million in September. Despite that steady accumulation, XRP’s price action has been comparatively muted, with the token entering October around $1.49 to $1.50.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart characterized XRP ETF flows as “surprisingly resilient,” according to comments reported by Decrypt. The key issue is that resilience in fund inflows has not translated into sustained upside through the mid-$1.50s.
The pattern also shows intermittent softness at the margin. The ETFs recorded no net flow on September 30 after stronger buying earlier in the month. That does not undermine the broader institutional-demand thesis, but it reinforces a central point: ETF purchases alone are not sufficient to guarantee higher spot prices if other holders are selling into strength.
Why rallies may be capped: profit-taking supply
The next question for traders and allocators is who is taking the other side of ETF buying. While there is no definitive public dataset identifying which specific holder segment is responsible, multiple signals from the wider altcoin market point toward profit-taking activity after a strong quarter.
According to The Block, Nexo Dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev said “some profit-taking pressure is emerging,” referencing seven-day altcoin inflow transactions to exchanges reaching their highest level since October 2025. CryptoQuant also reported that the increase in altcoin exchange deposits appears broad-based rather than concentrated in a small number of large wallets.
Depositing tokens to exchanges does not confirm that assets will be sold, but it can raise sell-side liquidity—meaning more market participants can potentially respond quickly if price lifts. For XRP, which gained more than 45% across Q3, the implications are straightforward: more holders likely sit on profits, and returning to prior resistance levels can create incentive to realize gains.
In this setup, ETF buyers may be absorbing a portion of supply without exhausting it. That can support the market and prevent sharp drawdowns, but it may still fall short of the conditions needed for a sustained breakout—especially if profitable holders remain willing to sell when price strengthens.
The next test: absorbing supply between $1.54 and $1.70
Market participants are treating the $1.54 to $1.70 band as the measurable threshold for the next directional move. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez said in comments carried by Yahoo Finance that he is watching for “an hourly close above $1.54” to confirm a breakout. He added that such a move could open the door to an advance of roughly 10% toward $1.70.
The rationale is technical and behavioral. XRP has struggled to maintain rallies through the mid-$1.50s, and prior attempts to push above $1.60 in late September also faded. The late-August swing high near $1.70 is therefore the larger hurdle—an area where supply has previously shown up and where institutional-style demand needs to prove it can dominate.
A sustained move through that region would suggest a shift in market structure: buyers are not just adding incremental demand, but actually tightening available supply. Failure, by contrast, would support the alternative interpretation—ETF demand remains constructive, but sellers continue to meet strength whenever price rises.
Support matters as well. XRP has recently traded around $1.48 to $1.50, making that area the first line bulls would need to defend if a breakout attempt stalls again. The token’s inability to revisit $1.70 does not necessarily imply institutional buying has disappeared, but it does raise the question of whether demand can keep absorbing supply until willing sellers become scarce.
Heading into the next phase, investors will likely track two things: whether XRP can clear and hold above the $1.54 threshold on a sustained basis, and whether ETF inflows remain consistent alongside signs of exchange deposits slowing. Additional catalysts to watch include upcoming ETF flow updates and broader market drivers that can influence liquidity and risk appetite across crypto.
