Ripple’s XRP held firm near the $1.02 support level after heavy selling pressure earlier in the week, though the token later rebounded to around $1.09. The bounce appears tied to stabilizing demand in the face of a broader risk-off move across crypto as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified and investors recalibrated expectations for US interest rates.
Data cited by market trackers also pointed to softening institutional interest via spot XRP exchange-traded funds, adding a headwind even as some traders looked for signs that large investors were still active on-chain.
Key takeaways
- Price move: XRP defended the $1.02 support zone and recovered to roughly $1.09 after Wednesday’s selloff.
- Catalyst: Escalating US-Iran tensions and hawkish shifts in rate expectations followed minutes from the June 16–17 FOMC meeting.
- Institutional signal: Reported net outflows from US spot XRP ETFs suggest weakening demand from some institutional channels.
- Technical implication: XRP remains below key moving averages, keeping the short-term technical picture bearish unless resistance levels are reclaimed.
- Next focus: Traders will likely watch ETF flow data, on-chain activity from large holders, and upcoming US rate-related developments.
What drove the move
Risk sentiment deteriorated this week after renewed escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran. Reports cited in the article said the US launched additional strikes against Iran following attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s reported response included targets involving US military installations and assets in Bahrain and Kuwait, while President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the ceasefire with Iran had ended.
In parallel, expectations for monetary policy hardened after the release of the June 16–17 FOMC meeting minutes. According to the article, the minutes showed Federal Reserve officials remained divided on the rate path, with concerns about inflation continuing to outweigh easing signals from labor market conditions.
Following the minutes, traders raised the probability of another rate hike. The article cited the CME FedWatch Tool showing markets pricing more than a 30% likelihood of a rate increase at the next Federal Reserve meeting, up from less than 20% a week earlier.
That combination—geopolitical uncertainty and tighter rate expectations—has been associated in the article with a broad decline across crypto, including Bitcoin, which was reported as slipping below $62,000.
Market reaction: XRP steadies, ETF flows turn a negative
While XRP initially came under pressure, it managed to defend the $1.02 support level after “heavy selling pressure” on Wednesday, according to the article. The token’s recovery to around $1.09 suggested that dip-buying emerged after the selloff, but the rebound has not been strong enough to signal a full shift in control.
Institutional flows added pressure to the near-term outlook. The article cited CoinGlass data indicating US spot XRP exchange-traded funds logged $7.3 million in net outflows on Wednesday after two comparatively quiet sessions. It also noted that if outflows persist over the coming days, XRP could face additional downside pressure as institutional demand weakens.
On the positioning side, CryptoQuant data referenced in the article suggested large “whale” activity remains visible across both spot and futures markets. At the same time, it said most other on-chain indicators were neutral, leaving the door open for a recovery if buying activity strengthens—though that would likely require a clearer improvement in both flows and technical structure.
Technical picture: bearish structure persists below key resistance
Technically, the article described XRP as trading around $1.09 on Thursday and remaining in a short-term downtrend. It said XRP is below the 50-day EMA at $1.173, the 100-day EMA at $1.275, and the 200-day EMA at $1.482, reinforcing a “bearish market structure.”
Price action was also reported as confined within a downward-sloping parallel channel, while momentum appeared to be fading. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was cited at roughly 42, indicating weak bullish momentum without reaching oversold levels. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) was described as slightly positive but losing strength, suggesting recovery attempts have not yet gained traction.
To improve the short-term outlook, the article said bulls need to reclaim resistance zones. The first major area is the 50-day EMA at $1.173. A decisive break above that level could open a move toward the 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $1.25 and $1.482, while long-term resistance was cited at $1.900. Without reclaiming those moving averages, the broader technical view is expected to remain unfavorable.
Bigger picture: rates and geopolitics remain the main swing factors
For XRP and other high-beta crypto assets, the article’s core narrative is that macro and geopolitics are currently driving the risk premium. Escalating Middle East tensions are weighing on broader investor risk appetite, while the FOMC minutes have shifted expectations toward potentially tighter policy—factors that typically pressure speculative assets when liquidity expectations tighten.
As the market digests those influences, investors will likely watch whether ETF outflows continue, whether whale activity translates into sustained spot buying, and whether the next leg of rate expectations changes ahead of upcoming US data and Fed communications.
What to watch next: Traders will be watching for follow-through on ETF flow data, confirmation of technical support versus a break lower from the $1.02 area, and any further updates to expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move.
