Ripple’s native token XRP slipped below the $1.10 support level after pausing its recent advance, as traders balanced a friendlier macro backdrop against signs of softer demand from both retail and institutional participants. The move reflects a cautious risk tone in crypto, even as improving US inflation data boosted broader market sentiment.
Key takeaways
- XRP fell back below $1.10 after failing to hold the support area during a cooling bid.
- Macro tailwinds arrived as US CPI declined in June, lifting risk appetite across markets.
- Demand signals stayed weak, with indicators pointing to subdued speculative activity and limited spot ETF flows.
- Next technical test centers on $1.10 and $1.03, with resistance clustered above key moving averages.
- Near-term direction may hinge on whether macro strength turns into fresh crypto inflows rather than remaining just sentiment support.
What drove the move
Sentiment in risk assets improved after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4% month-over-month in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest monthly drop since April 2020. Lower inflation has generally strengthened expectations that financial conditions could become more supportive for risk-taking, a theme that typically benefits higher-beta assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Yet XRP’s technical breakdown suggests that macro momentum has not fully translated into renewed spot demand. The article cited the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which rose to 30 from 24, remaining in “Extreme Fear.” That reading implies investors are less pessimistic than before, but still not firmly positioned for a broad, sustained risk-on move.
Market reaction: demand cools as traders look for confirmation
Derivatives data pointed to reduced retail participation. According to CoinGlass data on XRP perpetual futures open interest, open interest fell 2.3% over the past 24 hours to $2.4 billion. The report also noted open interest remains below the June peak of $2.7 billion, indicating speculative demand has not fully recovered.
Institutional flows appeared similarly restrained. Data referenced from CoinGlass’s XRP spot ETF page showed limited trading activity during the week, with $6.8 million in inflows recorded on Thursday. Despite the weekly activity, cumulative net inflows were described as $1.5 billion, while total net assets were stated at roughly $1 billion.
For investors, the takeaway is that the macro-driven bid has not yet been strong enough to overpower signs of lukewarm participation—leaving XRP vulnerable at major support levels even as broader markets stabilize.
Technical levels: focus stays on $1.10 support
On the 4-hour chart, XRP was described as still operating in a bearish structure after dropping below the $1.10 support zone. The report highlighted that the token trades below several key moving averages—below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $1.16, the 100-day EMA at $1.25, and the 200-day EMA at $1.46. Those levels typically act as resistance in downtrends, reinforcing the current bias.
Momentum indicators were characterized as mixed. The relative strength index (RSI) hovered around 52, suggesting neutral momentum rather than strong buying pressure. Meanwhile, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) turned slightly positive, a modest hint of an early recovery attempt, but the article cautioned that the signal remained too weak to confirm a sustained bullish reversal.
If XRP rebounds, the first resistance level cited was around the 50-day EMA near $1.16. A decisive move above that area could open the door to a test of the 100-day EMA at $1.25, while the 200-day EMA at $1.46 was flagged as the major long-term resistance. The report also referenced another higher barrier near a descending trendline around $1.55.
On the downside, $1.10 was identified as the most important support. A breakdown below it could accelerate selling toward the next support near $1.03, described as a potential next demand zone.
Bigger picture: macro tailwinds vs. crypto-specific demand
While easing inflation can improve liquidity expectations and support risk assets, the crypto market’s internal demand signals—retail derivatives positioning and spot ETF activity—appear to be lagging. That mismatch helps explain why XRP could slip through a major level even amid improving headline inflation data.
Going forward, investors are likely to watch whether the recent macro improvement translates into stronger spot buying and rising open interest, or whether the current pattern—cautious sentiment with limited institutional acceleration—keeps pressuring XRP at its technical thresholds.
Next, traders may focus on whether XRP can reclaim levels above the $1.10 area and move back toward the 50-day EMA near $1.16. With US inflation expectations already shifting, additional US macro data and upcoming signals on crypto demand—such as subsequent spot ETF flow updates and changes in derivatives positioning—could determine whether this move stabilizes or extends.
