Wheat futures were lower in midday trade on Wednesday, with Chicago and Kansas City contracts sliding by several cents as traders digested recent delivery activity and awaited fresh supply-demand signals from the U.S. government. Export Sales data from the USDA is due Thursday morning, a key catalyst for the market after recent data showed sizeable year-over-year declines in wheat shipments during May.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Chicago SRW futures fell 2 to 8 cents, while KC HRW contracts were down 3 to 7 cents by midday.
- Catalyst: USDA Export Sales results are scheduled for Thursday, and traders are also focused on recent monthly trade statistics.
- Implication: The market appears to be leaning toward a softer near-term demand tone ahead of export confirmation.
- Background: Monthly Census trade data pointed to a sharp drop in May wheat volumes versus both April and last year.
What drove the move
Midday weakness spread across major U.S. wheat futures contracts, with Chicago SRW (2 to 8 cent losses) and Kansas City HRW (3 to 7 cent declines) leading the downturn. Minneapolis spring wheat was also slightly lower, slipping 2 to 3 cents across most contracts.
Overnight, there were four deliveries against July wheat futures, adding to the week’s tape dynamics as contract positioning adjusts toward the next delivery period.
Beyond day-to-day trading, the broader backdrop included data that highlighted potential pressure on demand timing. Monthly trade information from the U.S. Census Bureau showed wheat volumes of 1.609 MMT (59.13 mbu) in May, which was 13.73% below April and down 26.7% compared with the same month last year.
Data traders are watching for confirmation
Analysts are looking for USDA Export Sales in the week of July 2 in a range of 250,000 to 600,000 MT for the 2026/27 marketing year. Thursday’s release is expected to shape expectations for U.S. wheat export demand, particularly as investors try to reconcile recent shipment data with the forward sales picture.
Additional context from the Census report suggested that full marketing-year exports, including products, totaled 912 mbu. That figure provides a longer-run frame for traders assessing whether May’s softness reflects a temporary fluctuation or a broader shift in demand.
Production outlook edges down
On the supply side, SovEcon trimmed its wheat production estimate for 2026/27 by 0.2 MMT to 46.5 MMT. That projection remains slightly above the 46.2 MMT estimate for the prior year, indicating the market is balancing modest year-over-year stability in production with near-term uncertainty over demand.
While the revision was small, it reinforced the theme that supply expectations remain broadly supported, limiting the potential for prices to rebound without confirmation of stronger export momentum from the U.S.
Where futures stood at midday
- CBOT July wheat (26): $6.07 1/4, down 2 cents
- CBOT September wheat (26): $6.11 1/2, down 7 cents
- KCBT July wheat (26): $6.36 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents
- KCBT September wheat (26): $6.45 3/4, down 7 cents
- MIAX July wheat (26): $6.03, unchanged
- MIAX September wheat (26): $6.31, down 2 cents
Going into Thursday, the market’s next major test is the USDA Export Sales report, which could quickly alter perceptions of how much demand is emerging for the 2026/27 crop year. Investors will also continue to weigh the latest Census trade figures and evolving production estimates as wheat traders search for clearer direction on both the export pipeline and global supply.
