Wheat futures traded in a mixed pattern on Monday, with Chicago SRW contracts drifting lower while other classes saw modest gains at the close. CBOT December wheat ended down 3 1/4 cents to $7.22, and CBOT March wheat slipped 2 cents to $7.39 1/4, reflecting a market that is weighing steady progress in crop harvesting against softer export momentum.
Market attention also remained on U.S. crop development and international supply estimates, as weekly government and industry reports pointed to continued field work in the U.S. spring wheat crop and ongoing updates to outlooks for Ukraine’s next harvest.
Key takeaways
- Price move: CBOT December wheat closed at $7.22 (down 3 1/4 cents) and CBOT March wheat settled at $7.39 1/4 (down 2 cents); KCBT futures were also mostly lower.
- Catalyst: The NASS Crop Progress report showed 93% of the U.S. spring wheat crop harvested, while weekly export inspections showed shipments below the prior week and well under year-ago levels.
- Key implication: Faster harvesting progress can reduce near-term supply risk, but weaker export demand keeps a lid on prices.
- Cross-market signal: The winter wheat planting pace lagged the normal trend, adding a counterweight despite Monday’s mixed closes across regions.
What drove the move
Crop development data helped set the tone early in the week. According to the weekly NASS Crop Progress report, 93% of the U.S. spring wheat crop had been harvested by Sunday, which was 1 percentage point ahead of the normal pace. In contrast, the report also indicated that winter wheat planting remained behind, with the pace at 8% complete—4 percentage points below the 5-year average.
At the same time, export figures suggested demand was softer. The weekly Export Inspections report showed wheat shipments of 456,720 metric tons (or 16.78 million bushels) for the week of 9/10. That volume was 5.9% below the prior week and 39.78% below the same week last year.
Destination patterns were also mixed. Japan was listed as the largest destination at 118,788 metric tons. Shipments of 111,415 metric tons went to Mexico, and 93,003 metric tons were shipped to Thailand. For the marketing year-to-date, shipments totaled 5.676 million metric tons (or 208.54 million bushels), which the report said was 27.78% below the same period last year.
Market reaction across wheat classes
Despite the mixed fundamentals, Monday’s closes varied by contract and region. Chicago SRW contracts leaned modestly lower: Dec 26 CBOT wheat closed at $7.22, down 3 1/4 cents, while Mar 27 CBOT wheat ended at $7.39 1/4, down 2 cents. Kansas City HRW futures were also mostly lower, with Dec 26 KCBT wheat settling at $7.92 1/2, down 6 cents, and Mar 27 KCBT wheat closing at $8.06 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents.
Minneapolis spring wheat was slightly weaker overall. Dec 26 MIAX wheat finished at $7.36 1/4, down 8 3/4 cents, and Mar 27 MIAX wheat settled at $7.58 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents.
Overall, the session’s mixed tape suggested the market was not fully repricing either supply conditions or demand expectations, instead balancing relatively favorable harvest progress against ongoing softness in export activity.
Bigger picture: supply outlook and next steps
Beyond U.S. data, international supply expectations continued to influence sentiment. According to APK-Inform, the Ukrainian wheat crop for 2026/27 is estimated at 25 million metric tons, which would be 2.4 million metric tons higher than the group’s prior estimate. The same source projected wheat exports of 10.5 million metric tons for the marketing year.
With wheat futures set against a backdrop of both harvesting momentum in the U.S. and updated views of competing supply, investors are likely to focus on whether export inspection volumes can stabilize from the current below-year-ago pace. Attention will also remain on how quickly winter wheat planting progresses relative to the normal trend.
Traders will be watching for the next round of USDA-style updates and follow-on export reporting to confirm whether Monday’s softer tone in Chicago and Kansas City contracts extends, or whether changes in demand begin to offset the near-term supply flow implied by the harvest progress.
