Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures were mixed on Friday, with gains running roughly 3 to 8 cents across the three active contracts as the market pared back Thursday’s slide. Wheat prices had slipped the prior session, leaving traders focused on shipment pace from the U.S. and steady progress in key European harvests.
Attention also centered on the latest USDA Export Sales report, which showed the weakest new-marketing-year weekly sales total to date, raising questions about how quickly export demand can rebuild after a slower start.
Key takeaways
- Wheat prices were mixed on Friday, with contracts moving within a 3 to 8 cent range.
- Thursday’s softness carried over into early trade, but buyers stepped in after the market absorbed export-demand data.
- USDA export sales totaled 235,102 MT for the week ending July 9, the lowest year-to-date figure for the new marketing year.
- French wheat conditions remain stable, with crop ratings steady and harvest largely advanced.
- Implication: export volumes will remain a near-term price driver while harvest progress and global production outlook act as counterweights.
What drove the market
Wheat’s move followed a two-part setup: a modest retreat in the complex on Thursday, followed by Friday’s stabilization as traders digested the USDA’s export sales update.
USDA export sales showed slower momentum. According to the weekly USDA Export Sales report issued Thursday, sales for the week ending July 9 reached 235,102 MT. The report characterized the figure as the lowest total for the new marketing year to date, and it was less than half of the comparable week a year earlier. Japan was listed as the top destination with 66,600 MT, while Mexico accounted for 45,100 MT.
Open interest increased after Thursday’s session. Open interest rose by 6,265 contracts on Thursday, a sign that positions were being added even as prices eased. That dynamic can matter for liquidity and for how quickly price moves can extend if demand signals improve—or if they deteriorate further.
Market reaction across key contracts
The wheat complex ended Thursday marginally lower and then traded mixed on Friday, with results varying by contract and delivery month.
- Chicago SRW wheat: nearby contracts posted losses of 1 to 3 cents on Thursday.
- Kansas City HRW wheat: front month contracts were down 2 to 3 1/2 cents on Thursday.
- Minnesota spring wheat (MPLS): MPLS spring wheat gained 2 to 3 cents on Thursday.
In the latest settlement and reference prices reported for Friday, traders were also tracking specific contract levels: Sep 26 CBOT wheat closed at $6.74 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents, while Sep 26 KCBT wheat closed at $7.16 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents. Sep 26 MIAX wheat closed at $6.85 1/4, up 2 cents. The December 2026 contracts were also mixed, with Dec 26 CBOT wheat down 1 cent and Dec 26 KCBT wheat down 2 cents.
Europe’s harvest and the global outlook
Beyond U.S. demand signals, European crop progress and global supply estimates continued to provide structure to the market.
France’s crop condition held steady. France AgriMer estimated French wheat at 65% good/excellent, unchanged from the prior week. Harvest was reported as 92% complete as of July 13, underscoring that much of the region’s crop is already being brought in.
Global production guidance stayed unchanged. The International Grains Council (IGC) left its world wheat production estimate unchanged at 821 million metric tons on Thursday. With the global output figure steady, the market’s focus naturally shifted toward near-term demand—particularly exports—rather than sudden changes in supply.
What to watch next
With Friday’s action reflecting stabilization after Thursday’s dip, investors will likely look for evidence that export sales can rebound from the slow pace shown for the week ending July 9. The next catalyst remains the cadence of U.S. export updates, alongside continued crop reporting from major exporters and any changes from the IGC or other global supply-watch groups.
