Trading was expected to be subdued at the start of 2026, with early U.S. futures pointing to a modestly higher open on Friday. Futures indicated gains for all three major stock indexes after Wednesday’s broader retreat, as traders weighed the next set of signals for interest-rate expectations while oil and gold moved higher in Asian trade.
In global markets, Asian shares ended lower, though several regional benchmarks rose sharply before the session wrapped up. Early indications showed the U.S. dollar starting the year without strong momentum, while oil climbed and gold jumped nearly 1.5%.
Key takeaways
- U.S. index futures pointed to gains, with Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures all higher in premarket indications.
- Commodity strength and a softer start to the dollar supported risk sentiment, alongside anticipation of key U.S. labor-market data.
- Stocks finished lower on Wednesday, leaving investors focused on whether Friday’s open can reverse that move.
- Multiple U.S. economic releases are due this week, potentially shaping near-term rate expectations.
- Markets remained cautious due to holiday-thinned trading activity across parts of Asia.
What drove the early market setup
The first session of 2026 arrives after U.S. major averages slipped on Wednesday. The Dow fell 303.77 points, or 0.6%, to 48,063.29, the Nasdaq declined 177.09 points, or 0.8%, to 23,241.99, and the S&P 500 dropped 50.74 points, or 0.7%, to 6,845.50.
Friday’s positioning appeared cautiously optimistic. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, Dow futures were up 196 points, S&P 500 futures were higher by 40 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 245.75 points, suggesting the market could open in positive territory if momentum holds.
In the background, Asian trade showed a tentative start for the dollar and a bid for commodities. Oil rose, while gold jumped nearly 1.5%—a mix that can influence investor risk appetite by reflecting shifts in inflation hedging and expectations for interest rates.
Asia and Europe: selective strength despite a softer tone
Asian markets were mixed but ended the session lower overall, with reported thin regional volumes due to holidays in Japan, China and New Zealand. Even so, several benchmarks posted notable gains during the session.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index surged 2.76% to 26,338.47. In South Korea, the Kospi rose 2.27% to 4,309.63. In Australia, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 edged up 0.15% to 8,727.80, while the broader All Ordinaries index added 0.20% to 9,036.60.
Europe traded mostly higher in early action. France’s CAC 40 was up 26.44 points, or 0.32%, and Germany’s DAX gained 53.45 points, or 0.22%. The U.K. FTSE 100 rose 42.62 points, or 0.43%, while the Swiss Market Index was up 26.89 points, or 0.20%. The Euro Stoxx 50 index—tracking 50 large-cap stocks across the euro area—was higher by 34.15 points, or 0.59%.
Economic calendar: payrolls and rate expectations in focus
Investors this week are set to look closely at labor-market data for clues on the path of interest rates. The payrolls report and jobless-related releases are expected to provide incremental evidence that could reinforce or challenge the current market view of policy.
Several specific U.S. data points are scheduled during Friday and the broader session ahead. A Manufacturing PMI Final for December is due at 9:45 a.m. ET, with consensus expectations at 51.8, matching the flash estimate. Construction spending for November is set to be released at 10:00 a.m. ET, where the consensus points to 0.0%, compared with a 0.2% rise in October.
Separately, the Fed balance sheet for the week is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET. The prior week’s level was reported at $6.581 trillion.
What to watch next
With holiday-thinned activity in parts of Asia, near-term price action may be prone to sharper swings once liquidity normalizes. Traders will likely monitor whether the early U.S. futures bounce translates into broader gains at the open, and how commodities—especially oil and gold—continue to trade relative to the dollar.
In the immediate horizon, the key focus remains upcoming U.S. labor-market updates and the scheduled releases for manufacturing and construction spending, alongside the Fed balance sheet update later in the day. Any deviation in these releases from expectations could quickly reshape rate expectations into the next trading sessions.
