Shares of Vistra have fallen sharply despite results that pointed to improving underlying profitability and steady earnings visibility. The company reported that adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations rose year over year in the second quarter, while management reiterated 2026 guidance and highlighted long-term power contracts with major tech customers—an effort to offset volatility in commodity electricity markets.
Vistra’s stock is down about 37% from its 52-week high of $219.82, trading around $139 as of this writing. The divergence reflects a market that has cooled on the broader “AI power” theme, even as demand growth and contracted volumes continue to build.
Key takeaways
-
Vistra’s adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations increased 31% year over year to $1.77 billion in the second quarter.
-
The company reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and expects to land at or above the midpoint.
-
Long-term power agreements—covering thousands of megawatts of nuclear capacity—extend out for decades with Amazon Web Services and Meta.
-
The shares are still down about 37% from their 52-week high, suggesting investors remain cautious about power price and demand risks.
What drove the latest results
In its latest quarterly filing, Vistra said adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) from ongoing operations rose to $1.77 billion in the second quarter, up from $1.35 billion a year earlier. Management attributed the increase to higher realized power and capacity prices and contributions from plants the company has acquired.
The company also reiterated its full-year 2026 outlook, confirming adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion. Vistra said it expects to meet or exceed the midpoint of that range, reinforcing confidence in cash generation.
Importantly, Vistra guided to adjusted free cash flow before growth investments of about $3.9 billion to $4.7 billion this year. Management noted that approximately 100% of expected 2026 generation volumes are hedged, which can reduce exposure to spot electricity price swings relative to unhedged peers.
Contracted power supply with major customers
Beyond quarterly performance, Vistra emphasized long-dated customer demand—especially from data centers and cloud-related workloads. The company said U.S. electricity demand is showing “fast-paced load growth,” citing data centers, electrification in oil field operations, and electric vehicles as contributors to demand in the markets it serves.
The most specific factor for investors is the duration and scale of contracted power. Vistra has entered 20-year agreements with Amazon Web Services and Meta covering more than 3,800 megawatts of nuclear capacity.
-
In September 2025, Vistra signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with Amazon Web Services to supply 1,200 megawatts of carbon-free power from its Comanche Peak nuclear plant in Texas, with deliveries expected to begin in late 2027.
-
In January, Vistra secured 20-year agreements with Meta Platforms covering 2,609 megawatts of nuclear power and capacity from its Perry, Davis-Besse, and Beaver Valley plants, including new capacity from planned upgrades. Deliveries are expected to start late this year.
Vistra said these Meta agreements are not included in its 2027 outlook yet. Management pointed to an adjusted EBITDA “midpoint opportunity” of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion for 2027 excluding those deals, and it also referenced a planned investment of up to $1.0 billion in Helix, a data center infrastructure venture where Vistra will serve as the preferred power partner.
Taken together, nearly 4,000 megawatts of Vistra’s nuclear output has been contracted to two large technology customers for two decades—an unusual level of revenue visibility for a competitive power producer.
Market reaction and what investors are weighing
Despite the operational improvement and guidance reaffirmation, Vistra shares have not recovered. The stock’s drawdown appears consistent with a broader reset in the market’s enthusiasm for power-related beneficiaries of AI-driven demand, as investors reassessed expectations earlier this year.
Vistra still faces risks that can affect earnings quality and timing. The company sells power into competitive markets, meaning results beyond its hedges and contracts remain exposed to electricity prices. Management also flagged that net income in the second quarter was $305 million and noted that unrealized losses on hedging positions weighed on that figure—an accounting factor that can look volatile from period to period for power producers.
In addition, demand assumptions depend on continued progress in data center development. A slowdown in construction could pressure the underlying demand thesis, particularly in years when new generation needs to match expanding load.
What to watch next
Investors will likely focus on whether Vistra can sustain the pace of earnings growth implied by its 2026 outlook and whether hedging and contract structures continue to translate into steadier cash generation. Upcoming catalysts include further quarterly updates on pricing and realized margins, progress on scheduled nuclear delivery ramps tied to customer agreements, and broader macro inputs that influence power demand and interest-rate expectations.
