Cardano shares of attention in crypto markets, but its native token, ADA, was under pressure on Monday, down more than 2% and trading near $0.161. The selloff comes despite Cardano activating the Van Rossem hard fork over the weekend—an important network milestone that aims to improve smart contract economics and functionality—yet traders have not translated the upgrade into fresh buying.
On-chain governance approval and technical changes to Protocol Version 11 may strengthen Cardano’s longer-term development path, but market positioning signals caution. That mix has left ADA struggling to extend last week’s recovery and remain confined within a narrow trading range.
Key takeaways
- Price move: ADA fell more than 2% on Monday to trade around $0.161.
- Catalyst: Cardano activated the Van Rossem hard fork, introducing Protocol Version 11 with lower smart contract execution costs and updated Plutus capabilities.
- Market implication: Despite the upgrade, derivatives positioning points to ongoing bearish expectations in the near term.
- Technical picture: ADA remains below major moving averages, with momentum indicators still suggesting weak conviction.
What drove the move
Cardano activated the Van Rossem hard fork on Saturday, described as the network’s first major protocol upgrade fully approved and ratified through its onchain governance system. The update introduced Protocol Version 11, aimed at improving the execution cost model for smart contracts and enhancing Plutus functionality. The upgrade also set “technical groundwork” for Cardano’s upcoming Dijkstra era, while serving as a live demonstration of decentralized governance in practice.
From a fundamental standpoint, the changes are intended to support scalability and help reduce transaction costs for decentralized applications—features that can matter for long-run network usage. However, the market reaction has been muted, with ADA continuing to trade in a relatively tight band and failing to sustain the prior week’s rebound.
Market reaction and derivatives signals
Traders appear to be reassessing ADA’s short-term outlook even as the protocol milestones progress. According to Coinglass data, ADA’s funding rate turned negative on Friday and stood at -0.0029% on Monday. In perpetual futures markets, negative funding rates typically mean traders holding short positions pay those on long positions, a pattern often associated with bearish sentiment among leveraged participants.
The same data source showed Cardano’s long-to-short ratio at 0.84 on Monday. With the ratio below 1.0, there are more short positions than long positions, reinforcing the idea that many market participants still expect additional downside despite the upgrade.
In practice, this type of setup can weigh on rallies: even when the underlying news is constructive, positioning can limit follow-through as traders remain hedged or positioned for declines.
Cardano’s technical outlook: levels investors watch
Technically, the broader trend remains under pressure. While ADA recovered modestly during the previous week, it is still trading below key trend indicators cited in the article: the 50-day exponential moving average at approximately $0.177, the 100-day EMA at $0.205, and the 200-day EMA at $0.273. Remaining under these averages generally signals sellers retain control of the larger trend structure.
Momentum indicators are also not pointing to a decisive reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was reported as just below the neutral 50 level, suggesting weak momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reportedly edged into positive territory but with only modest bullish momentum.
If buyers regain strength, the article highlighted near-term resistance around $0.173, followed by the 50-day EMA near $0.177. A daily close above these levels could open the door to a push toward the earlier trigger zone at $0.202 and the 100-day EMA around $0.205. The 200-day EMA at $0.273 is framed as a medium-term target if recovery broadens.
On the downside, immediate support is cited at $0.150. A decisive move below that level could accelerate selling toward a major demand zone around $0.138. The article adds that breaking beneath $0.150 would likely reinforce the prevailing bearish trend.
Bigger picture: governance progress versus timing
The Van Rossem hard fork underscores Cardano’s ability to move key changes through its onchain governance process, and Protocol Version 11’s adjustments to smart contract costs and Plutus functionality may support the network’s next development phase. Still, ADA’s price action suggests the market is prioritizing near-term direction over long-term roadmap progress.
With derivatives showing a short-leaning posture and technical indicators still not confirming a sustained uptrend, investors appear to be treating the upgrade as a positive milestone rather than an immediate catalyst for a stronger rally.
Looking ahead, traders will likely focus on whether ADA can reclaim the 50-day EMA area and hold above key resistance, or whether it breaks below $0.150 and retests lower demand. With crypto market moves often influenced by broader liquidity and macro conditions, the next indicators that could matter include upcoming network-related milestones and any subsequent market-wide catalysts that affect risk appetite.
