US stock indexes ended Monday mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining while the Nasdaq 100 fell as weakness in semiconductor and artificial-intelligence infrastructure stocks offset support from a sharp drop in crude oil prices and a solid batch of economic data. The S&P 500 edged higher, the Dow rose 0.51%, and the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.32%.
The session’s cross-currents reflected rotating pressure within mega-cap tech and the chip supply chain, even as eased Middle East tensions helped reduce inflation expectations and supported broader risk assets. Investors are now focused on a heavy week of earnings from major technology companies and on incoming signals from central banks.
Key takeaways
- Indexes closed mixed: the Dow gained 0.51% while the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.32%; the S&P 500 rose marginally (+0.02%).
- Catalyst: easing US–Iran tensions weighed less on oil markets, while chip and AI-infrastructure stocks pulled back.
- Rates impact: the 10-year Treasury yield fell after crude oil dropped sharply, indicating softer inflation expectations.
- Implication for investors: attention shifts to earnings this week, particularly for megacap technology and AI-related spending themes.
What drove the move
US market direction was influenced by geopolitical risk moving off the immediate front burner and by company-specific rotations within technology. According to the report, early gains came after the US and Iran held off on attacks for a third straight day, easing geopolitical concerns and pulling crude oil prices down. That decline in energy also helped push Treasury yields lower.
On the economic front, data showed strength in capital spending expectations. A report cited that US June capital goods new orders for non-defense excluding aircraft rose 0.9% month over month, surpassing the 0.7% forecast. The same report framed the result as supportive for stocks given its linkage to business investment plans.
However, the Nasdaq 100’s underperformance pointed to a more selective risk appetite within growth stocks. The report said investors rotated out of semiconductor and AI-infrastructure names, dragging on the technology-heavy index.
Market reaction across sectors
Chipmakers and AI infrastructure were the dominant drag. According to the report, the iShares Semiconductor ETF fell more than 2%, and several major semiconductors declined, including Sandisk, Advanced Micro Devices, and ASML, among others.
Energy stocks also moved lower in tandem with oil. The report attributed declines in energy producers and service companies to Monday’s more than 7% drop in crude oil, which reduced near-term pricing support for the group.
At the same time, the report highlighted pockets of strength elsewhere. Software stocks rose as investors rotated toward segments they viewed as more “beaten-down.” Atlassian climbed more than 10%, Workday rose more than 9%, and multiple enterprise software and cloud-related names gained broadly, including ServiceNow and Salesforce. The gains helped limit overall market losses despite pressure in semiconductors.
Airlines and cruise operators were also higher, consistent with the oil-led move. The report noted that several carriers and cruise-line stocks gained after crude’s sharp decline.
Earnings expectations and company headlines
Investors are positioning for a key earnings week, with the market awaiting results from several megacap technology companies including Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft. According to the report, Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts pointed to an approximately 23% increase in Q2 earnings, which would come close to the prior quarter’s strong 30% growth.
The report also tied the outlook to AI spending, saying AI infrastructure stocks are expected to contribute nearly 60% of S&P 500 earnings-per-share growth in Q2. It further noted early results were positive, with 86% of the 135 S&P 500 companies that had reported beating estimates, based on Bloomberg data.
Beyond the broader earnings outlook, several individual company moves stood out in the report. Nvidia fell more than 4% after announcing a “substantial” investment in AI startup Safe Superintelligence, while Forte Biosciences surged after Argenx agreed to buy the company for about $2.2 billion. The report also cited large moves in quantum and biotech-related names following analyst coverage changes and trial-related developments.
Bigger picture: oil, inflation expectations, and rates
Rates and inflation expectations were central to Monday’s positioning. According to the report, the 10-year Treasury yield fell about 3.6 basis points to 4.641% after crude oil plunged more than 7%. It also said the 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a one-month low of 2.201%.
The report added that bond market demand appeared mixed, referencing weaker results at a $70 billion auction of 5-year Treasuries. In Europe, government bond yields also moved lower, with the German bund yield cited down roughly 3.9 basis points to 3.133% and the UK gilt yield down about 3.5 basis points to 4.997%.
Central bank pricing remained in focus for global investors. The report said markets were discounting a high probability of an additional 25 basis point ECB rate hike at its next meeting. For the US Federal Reserve, it said markets were discounting a 38% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting.
What to watch next
With Monday’s session leaving indexes mixed, the next catalyst is earnings. Traders will look for follow-through from AI- and tech-related results, especially as the week’s megacap reports begin. In parallel, investors will monitor guidance and any rate-related signals as markets reassess the path of inflation and central bank policy ahead of additional macro data and subsequent policy decisions.
