Soybeans were mixed in midday trading, with strength in front-month contracts offset by weakness in some new-crop pricing. Soymeal futures fell broadly, while soy oil rose as crude oil climbed, reinforcing a divergence across the oilseed complex.
Price action also followed fresh export activity: the USDA reported a private sale of soybeans to China that included commitments for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 marketing years, supporting near-term demand expectations even as parts of the curve traded softer.
Key takeaways
- Soybeans mixed: Front months were higher by 1 to 5 1/2 cents, while some new-crop contracts were down 3 to 5 cents.
- Export catalyst: A private export sale to China totaling 472,000 metric tons added support for demand sentiment.
- Complex divergence: Soymeal futures were lower across most contracts, while soy oil gained as crude oil rose.
- Next data point: Export Sales data is due Thursday, with analysts expecting a wide range of potential sales totals.
- Weather backdrop: A NOAA forecast calls for 1 to 2 inches of precipitation mainly south of I-80, which may influence crop condition assessments.
What drove the move in soybeans
Midday pricing reflected a split between old-crop and new-crop supply expectations. Front-month soybean contracts traded firmer, with gains of 1 to 5 1/2 cents, while new-crop contracts were weaker, down 3 to 5 cents in the session’s midday snapshot.
Trade-related news provided the clearest near-term support. According to USDA reporting, a private export sale to China totaled 472,000 MT of soybeans, including 136,000 MT for 2025/26 and 336,000 MT for 2026/27. The breakdown matters for the curve: commitments tied to both marketing years can help cushion prices across the horizon, but traders still differentiated between immediate versus later-period supply demand.
Oilseed complex: soymeal lower, soy oil higher
While soybeans were mixed, soymeal futures showed broad weakness. Soymeal prices were $4.20 to $5.60 lower across most contracts, suggesting weaker demand expectations or easing prospects for crushing margins relative to soybeans.
Soy oil moved in the opposite direction, rising 210 to 264 points across contracts. The price strength in soy oil tracked crude oil’s advance, with crude up by $4.09 at the time of the report. That linkage can matter for crushers and traders because soy oil demand is partially influenced by energy and biodiesel economics.
Focus shifts to Thursday’s export data
Beyond the USDA’s private sale disclosure, traders appeared to be looking ahead to the next scheduled export report. Export Sales data is set for Thursday, and Reuters-surveyed analysts were looking for between 50,000 and 500,000 MT of 2025/26 soybean sales in the week of July 2. For 2026/27, the expected range was 150,000 to 500,000 MT.
For the meal and oil components, analysts’ estimates pointed to potential additional volatility: soy meal sales were seen at 250,000 to 600,000 MT in total, while bean oil sales were expected between net reductions of 5,000 MT and sales of 10,000 MT. The wide ranges underscore how sensitive the broader complex can be to shifts in weekly shipment pace and purchaser demand.
Broader export and weather signals
Export momentum has also been a key narrative recently. Data from Census showed 2.57 million metric tons (94.42 million bushels) of soybeans shipped in May. That figure was 72.46% above last year but down 14.35% compared with the previous year, with the report described as the second-largest May on record.
Soybean meal exports in May reached 1.572 million metric tons, setting a record level. The release noted that it was slightly below April but up 19.47% versus 2025, reinforcing that meal demand has remained resilient even as futures showed midday softness.
Weather added another near-term variable for the market. Over the next seven days, NOAA’s quantitative precipitation forecast projected 1 to 2 inches of rainfall mainly south of I-80 covering much of Missouri and Indiana, parts of Ohio, and the southern half of Illinois. Portions of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, as well as central Wisconsin, were also forecast to receive up to an inch. For soybean markets, rainfall totals can affect perceived crop stress levels and yield expectations, influencing both forward pricing and basis dynamics.
Where prices stood at midday
- July 2026 soybeans: $12.02 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents.
- Nearby cash: $11.48 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents.
- August 2026 soybeans: $11.95 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents.
- November 2026 soybeans: $11.94 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents.
- New-crop cash: $11.30 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents.
Traders will likely keep a close watch on Thursday’s Export Sales report for confirmation of demand across both 2025/26 and 2026/27. In the near term, investors will also monitor the evolving precipitation forecast from NOAA as weather expectations continue to shape yield outlooks and the pricing spread between old- and new-crop contracts.
