Soybean futures closed higher on Thursday, with most contracts posting gains of 1 cent to about 2¼ cents on the session. The strength was supported by firmer soymeal and an uptick in soy oil, while traders weighed an upcoming U.S. policy decision tied to refinery exemptions that could affect 2027 biofuel quota expectations.
Alongside the pricing move, the latest weekly U.S. Export Sales data showed soybean sales running at a three-week low for the week, but new-crop commitments reaching a marketing-year high—suggesting a mixed demand backdrop into the end of the current marketing year.
Key takeaways
- Soybeans rose modestly: The most-active contract, September 2026, settled higher at $12.56 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents on the day.
- Catalyst in focus: Reuters reported the White House is considering a 500 million-gallon increase to 2027 quotas to offset higher-than-expected small refinery exemptions, though nothing has been formally announced.
- Complex strength: Soymeal futures were steady to higher and soy oil turned up, helping underpin the broader soybean complex.
- Demand signals were mixed: Weekly soybean sales hit a three-week low, while new-crop sales set a marketing-year high.
- Implication: Investors are balancing near-term export pace with expectations for biofuel-linked demand later in the cycle.
What drove the move
Prices firmed across the soybean complex as traders responded to two overlapping themes: feed demand reflected in soymeal, and biofuel-linked demand reflected in soy oil. Soymeal futures were steady to about $1.60 higher on the day, while soy oil futures moved higher, rebounding by roughly 32 to 80 points depending on the contract.
Market participants also digested a policy headline affecting longer-dated biofuel expectations. According to Reuters, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is looking to approve additional small refinery exemptions this week. Reuters further reported that the White House is contemplating increasing 2027 quotas by 500 million gallons to offset exemptions that are higher than originally expected. The administration has not issued an official announcement, leaving traders to price the possibility rather than confirmed policy.
Export Sales and demand details
The weekly Export Sales report showed 73,913 metric tons of 2025/26 soybean sales for the week ending 8/20, which was described as a three-week low as the marketing year approaches its end. Egypt was the largest destination at 105,000 MT, while 66,300 MT was sold to Indonesia. The report also noted that unspecified buyers cancelled 169,500 MT, with most of that quantity switched to another buyer—an item that can influence near-term loadings and expectations for end-of-year demand.
New-crop sales, however, were stronger. New crop commitments were reported at 2.478 million metric tons, marking a marketing-year high and more than double the same week last year. China was listed as the largest buyer with 1.1 million metric tons, including 1.046 million metric tons sold to unknown destinations. In addition, accumulated 2026/27 sales totaled 14.334 million metric tons, nearly double the same time last year and noted as the fourth-largest for the current week in the last 10 years.
For the meal and oil complex, the Export Sales report recorded 427,480 MT of soymeal sales. That figure fell in the middle of the estimated range of 200,000 to 800,000 MT, with 104,702 MT for the current marketing year and 322,778 MT for the next marketing year. Bean oil business was reported at 360 MT for the current marketing year and 0 MT for 2026/27, leaving combined sales within the middle of an expected net range that spanned from cancellations to net sales.
Overseas signals and what traders will watch next
Beyond U.S. data, European Commission information pointed to EU soybean import demand at 14.5 million metric tons for 2026/27, up 0.6 million metric tons from the prior month’s estimate. That adjustment may help shape expectations for competition among global exporters into the next marketing period.
In terms of settlement levels, September 26 soybeans closed at $12.56 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents. Nearby cash was $12.32 1/4, also up 2 1/4 cents. November 26 soybeans settled at $12.68, up 2 cents; January 27 soybeans finished at $12.83, up 2 1/4 cents; and new-crop cash was $12.10 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents.
Looking ahead, traders will likely track whether the EPA proceeds with additional small refinery exemptions and whether the White House follows through with any formal 2027 quota changes. On the market fundamentals side, the next Export Sales releases and broader demand updates will remain key as the industry moves further into the new-crop window.
