Chicago soybean futures gave back part of Monday’s gains early Tuesday, with prices easing between 1 cent and 7 cents in the morning session. The retreat follows a strong start to the week for new-crop and deferred contracts, while weekly export data and USDA crop progress continue to frame expectations for demand and planting development.
Soybeans were lower early Tuesday after closing higher on Monday. Cash beans were up 23 1/4 cents to $11.89, according to preliminary pricing. Soymeal futures ended Monday’s session higher, while soy oil was lower at the close.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Soybean futures slipped early Tuesday by 1 to 7 cents after Monday’s rebound.
- Catalyst: The most recent USDA crop progress update and an exports-inspections report showing weaker weekly shipments influenced the backdrop.
- Supply outlook: Crop development remains ahead of normal in key stages, with more of the crop in bloom and pod-setting.
- Cross-market signals: Soymeal futures held gains, while soy oil futures finished Monday weaker, suggesting differing demand or crush expectations across products.
What drove the move
Momentum faded Tuesday after Monday’s rally in soybean futures, where contracts posted gains ranging from 10 3/4 to 23 1/4 cents across the front and deferred months. Preliminary market data also showed open interest rising by 14,871 contracts on Monday, indicating new participation.
USDA’s crop progress report added to the supply-development narrative. Data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service showed 66% of the US soybean crop blooming by 7/19, which was 6% above normal. The report also said 32% of the crop had set pods, with pod-setting running 8 percentage points faster than normal. Condition ratings improved as well, with the gd/ex category up 1% to 66%. The Brugler500 index rose 2 points to 369, according to the report referenced in the article.
On the demand side, Monday’s export inspections data suggested softness in near-term shipment momentum. The report showed 296,972 metric tons (or 10.91 million bushels) of soybean shipments for the week of 7/16. That was down 33.72% from the prior week and 21.24% below the same week last year. For the marketing year, the total was listed at 38.62 million metric tons (or 1.418 billion bushels</strong), which is 17.53% below the comparable period from last year.
Market reaction in soy products
While soybean prices eased early Tuesday, the product complex diverged on Monday. The article reported that soymeal futures ended higher by $3.30 to $5.40 at the close, reflecting strength in the meal market. In contrast, soy oil futures fell by 11 to 57 points at settlement, signaling that investors were not pricing the same direction of demand or crush margins across the complex.
Cash pricing also reflected the mixed tone. The cash bean value was reported at $11.89, up 23 1/4 cents. Nearby and deferred futures finished Monday higher across the curve, with the day’s settlements exceeding the early Tuesday levels, which helped explain the morning pullback.
Where contracts stood
According to the pricing summarized in the article, Aug 26 soybeans closed at $12.26, up 21 1/2 cents, and were down 7 1/2 cents in early Tuesday trade. Sep 26 soybeans closed at $12.15 1/2, up 22 cents, and were down 4 1/2 cents early Tuesday. Nov 26 soybeans settled at $12.26 1/4, up 23 1/4 cents, and were down 1 1/2 cents at the time of the report.
New-crop cash was cited at $11.67 3/4, up 23 3/4 cents. Separately, nearby cash was reported at $11.89, also higher on Monday.
Bigger picture for traders
Investors are balancing two competing forces: USDA’s crop progress points to faster-than-normal development and steady overall crop conditions, which can limit upside in futures if demand data does not strengthen. At the same time, export inspections data continues to show year-over-year weakness in shipment volumes, keeping attention on whether buyers step up later in the marketing year.
With open interest having risen on Monday, the market’s early Tuesday pullback suggests traders may be recalibrating positions after the rally—particularly as the crop-development pace and shipment pace are both being measured against last year’s trends.
Next to watch: Additional weekly USDA updates and follow-through in export-inspection momentum are likely to be key near-term drivers. Traders will also look for whether soymeal and soy oil maintain their divergence versus soybeans, as well as any changes in crop-condition assessments that could shift expectations for supply and the timing of harvest pressure.
