Soybeans were trading lower in early Thursday trade, with futures slipping by roughly 11 to 12 cents. The downside followed Wednesday’s modest gains that largely faded after the USDA export sales announcement, as market participants shifted positions and reassessed near-term demand signals.
Elsewhere in the complex, cash soybeans remained slightly firmer in the latest quote, while soymeal held steady to drift lower. Soy oil futures continued to fall, extending weakness across processed products as traders weighed the latest balance between crush economics and export flows.
Key takeaways
- Soybean futures traded early Thursday about 11 to 12 cents lower as momentum from Wednesday’s session dissipated.
- Catalyst: Wednesday’s USDA export sales release saw many contracts close off session highs by 6 to 8 cents.
- Complex reaction: Soy oil futures posted additional losses, while soymeal was steady to down.
- Implication: Traders appear focused on the reliability of export demand signals and how quickly they translate into pricing support.
What drove the move
Trading dynamics into Thursday suggested some repositioning. Open interest indicated a rotation of ownership, rising by 874 contracts, pointing to changes in participation rather than a clean one-way trend.
Momentum also weakened after the USDA report. Wednesday’s futures posted marginal gains of about 2 to 3 1/4 cents in most contracts, but the market faded the USDA export sales announcement, with contracts settling 6 to 8 cents off the highs.
USDA reported 372,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations on Wednesday morning. The breakdown included 60,000 metric tons for old-crop shipments and 312,000 metric tons for new-crop shipments.
Market reaction across soy products
By the latest available quotes, the cmdtyView national average cash bean price was up 1 3/4 cents at $10.79. Soymeal futures were steady to down by $1.10, while soy oil futures were again lower, falling by an additional 77 to 138 points depending on contract.
On the day’s settlement snapshot, July 26 soybeans closed at $11.32, up 2 cents, but were indicated lower by about 12 cents at the time of Thursday’s early trading. Nearby cash was last quoted at $10.79, up 1 3/4 cents.
Other contracts showed similar patterns of reduced follow-through: August 26 soybeans closed at $11.36 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents, but were down roughly 11 1/4 cents early Thursday. November 26 soybeans closed at $11.49 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents, yet were indicated lower by about 10 3/4 cents.
What traders are watching in upcoming export data
Attention is set on the next round of export sales updates this morning. Traders are looking for a range of weekly shipments and bookings, including:
- Old-crop sales expected between 100,000 and 300,000 metric tons for the week of June 11.
- New-crop sales projected between 250,000 and 500,000 metric tons.
- Soymeal sales expected between 200,000 and 650,000 metric tons, based on a Reuters analyst survey.
- Bean oil bookings estimated to range from net cancellations of 2,000 metric tons to sales of 20,000 metric tons in the same survey.
Any deviation from these expectations could shift the market’s near-term view of demand and crush margins, particularly as soy oil continues to absorb selling pressure.
Bigger picture for the week
Thursday will help complete the trading week, with Friday off in observance of Juneteenth. That calendar factor can matter for positioning, since traders may adjust risk ahead of the holiday and wait for the next data catalyst following the delayed export-sales print.
Looking ahead, investors will likely focus on how today’s export sales numbers compare with expectations and whether the USDA demand signals regain traction after Wednesday’s report. With processed products mixed—soymeal steady to lower and soy oil falling further—the market’s next direction may depend on whether buyers step in to stabilize the demand picture across beans, meal, and oil.
