Soybean futures drifted slightly lower in early trade on Friday after closing Thursday with fractional to 8 cent losses. The complex was mixed: cash soybeans were down, soymeal futures edged higher, and soy oil fell, as traders digested the latest U.S. export sales and supply-demand updates.
Key takeaways
- Price move: July 26 soybeans closed at $11.15, down 8 cents, while cash soybeans were quoted at $10.61 1/2, down 7 3/4 cents.
- Catalyst: U.S. USDA export sales showed 2025/26 bean sales of 211,292 MT for the week of 6/4, down 23.68% from the prior week but above the same week a year ago.
- Grain balance inputs: WASDE data indicated old-crop U.S. stocks were steady, with an internal shift of 20 mbu from exports to crush.
- Cross-market reaction: Soymeal futures were mixed to higher, while soy oil futures were lower, reflecting divergent demand expectations across crush components.
- Implication: Despite solid destination buying in the export report, higher carryout estimates—linked to Argentina supply—kept pressure on nearby soybean prices.
What drove the move
Early Friday weakness in soybeans followed Thursday’s modest slide across the futures curve. Traders focused on export activity and the latest supply-demand framing from USDA and WASDE.
USDA export sales data reported 2025/26 soybean sales of 211,292 MT for the week ending 6/4. That figure was 23.68% lower than the previous week, but still well above the same week last year. By destination, Egypt bought 67,600 MT and Japan purchased 56,400 MT. In addition, unknown was listed as the largest buyer with 120,000 MT.
New-crop sales totaled 141,500 MT, down 41.77% versus the week prior. For the full new-crop tally, cumulative sales were reported at 1.032 MMT, down 7.69% compared with the same point last year. The report also showed soymeal sales at 426,138 MT, which landed within the middle of the expected range of 150,000 to 600,000 MT.
On the crush side, the USDA export data listed bean oil sales at 824 MT, described as falling within an estimated range that included net reductions of 2,000 MT to net sales of 15,000 MT. That contributed to the mixed tone across the soy complex as markets balanced meal strength against softer oil action.
Market reaction across the soy complex
By the end of Thursday’s session, the soybean curve ended lower across several contracts. Jul 26 soybeans closed at $11.15, down 8 cents. Aug 26 soybeans finished at $11.20 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents. Nov 26 soybeans closed at $11.34, down 4 1/2 cents.
Cash prices were also weaker. Nearby cash soybeans were quoted at $10.61 1/2, down 7 3/4 cents. New-crop cash was $10.68 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents.
Outside soybeans, futures performance was more divergent. Soymeal futures were mixed, reported as down $1.00 to $1.80 higher on the day. Soy oil futures were sharply lower, down 65 to 88 points.
Supply-demand signals and the bigger picture
WASDE data showed old-crop U.S. stocks steady at 340 mbu, but the report included an internal shift of 20 mbu from exports to crush. New-crop U.S. stocks were also steady at 310 mbu.
International supply inputs were a separate factor. Brazilian production was held steady at 180 MMT, while Argentina was raised by 2 MMT to 50 MMT. CONAB data indicated a 0.12 MMT increase to the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production estimate to 180.25 MMT. The Rosario Grains Exchange put the Argentina corn crop at 51.5 MMT, up 1.5 MMT from its previous estimate.
World carryout for 2025/26 was estimated higher, rising 0.39 MMT to 125.52 MMT due to increased Argentina supplies. New-crop stocks were also reported up 0.1 MMT to 124.88 MMT. For markets, that higher carryout backdrop can limit upside follow-through even when export sales are supportive.
Open interest was reported at 2,894 contracts, indicating activity remained relatively contained as prices adjusted to new information.
What to watch next
Investors will likely track the pace of 2025/26 export commitments for further signals on demand strength, particularly given the week’s decline versus the prior reporting period. Markets may also focus on subsequent WASDE updates and any revisions to South American production that could shift carryout expectations, alongside upcoming U.S. data releases that influence near-term crush and export outlooks.
