Soybean futures were lower in midday trade on Tuesday, with prices in the green early and then slipping into losses by mid-session. The weakness followed a mixed stream of crop-condition updates and weather forecasts, while traders also digested export activity and awaited key USDA projections later this week.
Key takeaways
- Soybeans: Midday pricing showed losses of 9 to 11 cents across nearby contracts.
- Related markets: Soymeal futures moved lower, while soy oil declined sharply.
- Catalysts: Crop progress data, an NOAA weather outlook calling for heavy rains, and ongoing export sales shaped trading.
- Implication: With yields, acreage, and stocks in focus ahead of USDA’s WASDE, traders are likely to weigh whether near-term rainfall supports crop development.
What drove the move
Cash and futures prices softened during the morning pullback. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price rose 3 1/2 cents to $11.36 1/4, but futures broadly traded lower.
In the soybean complex, soymeal futures were down in the 50 to 70 cents range, while soy oil fell by 139 points. The divergence across products suggested traders were managing expectations not only for soybean supply, but also for downstream crush economics and use demand tied to meal and oil.
Export developments were also in focus. USDA reported a private export sale of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for 2026/27 shipment. In addition, 180,000 metric tons of soybean meal were sold to the Philippines.
On the domestic production outlook, USDA’s weekly Crop Progress data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) showed 93% of the US soybean crop blooming as of 8/9. The report also indicated 74% setting pods, which was 5 percentage points faster than the 5-year average. Crop condition ratings slipped slightly, with 62% rated good/excellent, down 1% from the prior reading.
State-level deterioration contributed to the overall condition dip, particularly North Dakota (-31), while some improvement appeared elsewhere, including Illinois (+4), Indiana (+1), Michigan (+9), Nebraska (+7), and South Dakota (+4).
Weather outlook and what traders are watching
Weather expectations were a key theme. The NOAA 7-day forecast calls for heavy rains across much of the Dakotas and Nebraska, extending through Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio over the next week. A separate note indicated rains are also expected in the ECB region over the next day. For soybean markets, rainfall timing can materially influence crop development and yield potential, which is especially relevant as attention turns toward upcoming USDA estimates.
Traders also appear to be positioning ahead of USDA’s next major briefing. A Reuters survey of traders projected NASS would set the US soybean yield at 52.9 bushels per acre on Wednesday. Harvested acres were estimated at 84.564 million acres, which would be 163,000 acres higher than the June report. Production was projected at 4.472 billion bushels.
For stocks, the Reuters survey expected 2025/26 soybean stocks at 321 million bushels, down 9 million bushels from the previous month. New-crop stocks were estimated to decline by 6 million bushels to 304 million bushels. These figures set the near-to-medium term balance that can influence price direction once WASDE is released.
Bigger picture: complex pricing and Brazil export signals
Beyond US crop and export activity, traders monitored Brazil export developments. ANEC raised its estimate for August Brazilian soybean exports by 1.14 million metric tons to 10.88 million metric tons. For soybean futures, Brazil export flows often affect global supply expectations and can influence the level at which new-crop bids stabilize.
As rainfall forecasts and condition changes feed into yield expectations, the market’s sensitivity to forward weather windows remains elevated. At the same time, moves in soymeal and soy oil suggest participants were balancing crush-related demand and input costs—meaning the complex could remain reactive to both agricultural and processing signals.
Contract snapshots during the session: August 26 soybean futures were at $11.47 1/4 (down 10 1/2 cents), nearby cash was at $11.26 (down 10 cents), September 26 futures were at $11.52 1/4 (down 9 1/2 cents), November 26 futures were at $11.69 1/4 (down 10 1/4 cents), and new-crop cash was at $11.10 1/4 (down 10 cents).
Looking ahead, the next catalysts for soybean traders are the upcoming USDA data updates, including Wednesday’s yield-related estimates and the broader WASDE balance-sheet outlook. Investors will also be watching whether the forecasted heavy rains translate into improved field conditions, and whether Brazil export schedules continue to support global supply assumptions.
