Soybeans traded slightly lower in midday activity on Friday, with the complex weighed by modest pressure in cash values and a mixed tone in crush-related contracts. The latest U.S. crop export and supply updates showed progress toward shipping targets, but overall sales pace remains behind the typical seasonal rhythm.
Key takeaways
- Price move: July 2026 soybeans were down about 1 1/4 cents, while nearby cash soybeans eased about 1 cent to $10.60 1/2.
- Catalyst: USDA Export Sales data indicated 2025/26 sales and shipments tracking below the average pace, while WASDE kept U.S. stock levels steady with internal demand shifts.
- Implication: Tightness is not being added at a rapid pace, keeping near-term upside limited despite steady movement toward shipping targets.
- Crush signals: Soymeal futures were modestly higher on the day, while soy oil futures fell materially.
What drove the move
USDA Export Sales data showed the 2025/26 soybean export business at 40.15 million metric tons, equal to 97.7% of the USDA projection. While the projection was revised lower on Thursday, the figure still runs behind the 100% average sales pace. Shipments were reported at 36 million metric tons, or 87.6% of the updated USDA number, and the gap is narrowing as shipments approach the 91% average shipping pace.
For the broader new-crop window, total new crop sales accumulated to 1.032 million metric tons, down 7.69% compared with the same point last year.
Supply and crush update from USDA and industry data
WASDE data indicated U.S. “old crop” stocks were steady at 340 million bushels, but with an internal shift of 20 million bushels from exports to crush demand. “New crop” stocks were also reported steady at 310 million bushels.
On the world balance sheet, Brazilian production remained unchanged at 180 million metric tons, while Argentina was adjusted higher by 2 million metric tons to 50 million metric tons.
In the crush complex, traders were also looking ahead to NOPA updates due Monday. The market focus for May crush calls for total meal and oil crush volumes of 216.02 million bushels, with estimates ranging from 207.28 million to 223.1 million bushels. Soybean oil stocks were expected at 1.855 billion pounds.
Market reaction across the soybean complex
By midday, the soybean futures strip reflected a cautious tone rather than a broad selloff. Soybeans were mixed across maturities, with modest declines predominating.
Key quoted levels included:
- July 26 soybeans: $11.13 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents
- Nearby cash: $10.60 1/2, down 1 cent
- August 26 soybeans: $11.18 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents
- November 26 soybeans: $11.31 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents
- New crop cash: $10.67 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents
Related contracts showed a split: soymeal futures were reported mixed, down 20 cents to a dime higher on the day, while soy oil futures were lower by 20 to 36 points. The divergence suggests market participants were placing different weights on near-term crush economics versus broader demand conditions.
What to watch next
Attention now shifts to Monday’s NOPA release for May crush totals and soybean oil stock expectations, which could influence the meal-and-oil pricing spread. Traders will also continue to monitor the pace of sales and shipments relative to USDA’s revised targets, with the next major market reaction likely tied to whether export momentum improves from the current below-average sales pace.
