Soybeans edged lower early Tuesday, with futures down 7 to 10 cents, reversing the firmness that built into Monday’s close. After settling 3 to 7 1/2 cents higher on Monday, the August contract was down 3 1/4 cents early Tuesday, while the market also showed modest short covering as open interest fell by 6,470 contracts. Cash prices were mixed: the national average “Cash Bean” price rose 6 cents to $11.47 1/2.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Early Tuesday, soybean futures were down 7 to 10 cents, while Monday’s settlements had finished higher.
- Catalyst: Investors digested weekly U.S. crop progress, export shipment and sale updates, and USDA crush and stocks data.
- Related markets: Soymeal futures were higher and soy oil was up, suggesting a mixed outlook across processing components.
- Implication: Faster crop development and softer exports versus last year are balancing bullish China demand headlines and updated crush performance.
What drove the move
Crop progress data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service showed the soybean crop continued to advance. According to the weekly Crop Progress report, 88% of the U.S. soybean crop was blooming by 8/2, while 62% had set pods—7 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Condition ratings were steady-to-lower: 63% were rated “good/excellent,” unchanged on the day-to-day basis cited in the report, and the Brugler500 index remained at 363.
On demand and trade, USDA export shipment data showed a mixed picture. USDA FGIS tallied soybean export shipments of 343,941 metric tons (12.64 million bushels) for the week ending July 30. That was 6% below the prior week and 45.3% lower than the same week last year. Indonesia led destinations at 78,702 MT, followed by Mexico at 74,245 MT and Germany at 58,129 MT.
Sales news also added volatility. Reports over the weekend indicated China purchased 14 to 16 cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Friday. USDA later confirmed a portion of that activity: 488,000 MT were reported as sold to China for 2026/27, and 136,150 MT were sold to unknown destinations.
In processing data released by USDA, afternoon Fats & Oils figures showed 217.8 million bushels of soybeans crushed in June, slightly below a 218.3 million bushel average estimate cited in the market summary. Crush was 2.21% higher than May and 10.61% above June of the prior year. Soybean oil inventories were reported at 2.096 billion pounds, down 9.45% from the previous month and up 10.7% year over year.
Market reaction across soymeal and soy oil
While soybeans traded weaker early Tuesday, the processing complex posted gains. The market summary showed soymeal futures up 20 cents to $1.20. Soy oil was also supported, up 101 to 157 points, reflecting a split trade where meal and oil outperformed as soybean futures eased.
Daily delivery activity remained in focus as well. According to the report, 123 deliveries were issued against August soybeans overnight, with no deliveries for soymeal and 572 for bean oil—details that can influence near-term supply dynamics in the futures structure.
Expectations for supply: Brazil forecast update
On the outside-market supply outlook, StoneX raised its Brazil soybean production forecast to 183.1 million metric tons, increasing the estimate by 0.5 million metric tons from the prior level. For global soybean pricing, incremental changes to South American output can matter as investors weigh competing influences: crop pace and U.S. demand trends versus expected non-U.S. production.
What to watch next
With soybeans sliding early Tuesday after Monday’s rebound, traders are likely to keep tracking weekly export flow and the latest USDA processing and inventory updates. Upcoming catalysts to monitor include additional USDA reporting on demand and stocks, further confirmation of foreign buying—especially China-linked sales—and continued attention to crop development versus the seasonal pace.
