Chicago soybean futures were higher in early Monday trading, extending Friday’s rebound as traders weighed U.S. export demand, a rotation in futures positioning, and upcoming supply data. The most-active contracts gained modestly at the start of the session after settling higher on Friday, with soymeal also firm and soy oil posting gains.
Friday’s price action followed reports of new U.S. sales to China and signs of portfolio shifts in the latest CFTC positioning data. Investors now look to the next wave of fundamentals, including NOPA crush results later Monday and additional import tenders tied to China’s marketing activity.
Key takeaways
- Soybeans moved up: August futures closed Friday at $11.73 3/4, up 9 cents; September closed at $11.77 3/4, up 11 3/4 cents.
- Primary catalyst: USDA reported a private export sale of 136,000 MT of soybeans to China for 2026/27 shipment, lifting last week’s total announced sales to 641,000 MT—all to China.
- Positioning shift matters: CFTC data showed managed money trimmed 24,104 contracts from its net long position in the week ending Aug. 11, taking net long to 101,362 contracts.
- Crush and stocks in focus: Traders are set to react to Monday’s NOPA report, with expectations for July crush volumes and soybean oil stock levels.
- China supply actions ahead: Sinograin is scheduled to auction an additional 360,000 MT of imported beans on Wednesday.
What drove the move
Fresh export activity supported the complex. According to USDA’s private export sale report, buyers in China purchased 136,000 MT of soybeans for 2026/27 shipment. That brought announced soybean export sales for last week to 641,000 MT, with all reported business attributed to China.
Broader USDA export statistics also provided context. Old-crop soybean sales were reported at 41.79 MMT, or 101% of the USDA forecast, close to the 102%–103% average sales pace from prior years. Shipments for the same period were listed at 39.587 MMT, or 96% of the USDA number. For new-crop soybeans, sales stood at 10.13 MMT, described as a four-year high and more than double the same point last year.
On the positioning front, the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report showed managed money reduced exposure. Data showed managed money cut 24,104 contracts from its net long position during the week ending Aug. 11, lowering net long to 101,362 contracts. The smaller net long, alongside Friday’s price strength, suggested some rotation in holdings rather than an outright exit from the market.
Market reaction across soymeal and soy oil
The gains were not limited to soybeans. Soymeal futures finished Friday with broad strength, closing with contracts up about a dime to $2.80, and September soymeal up $1.30 for the week. Early Monday indicated continued firmness, consistent with traders aligning demand expectations for crush-related products.
Soy oil also posted gains. The report said soy oil contracts were higher by 9 to 65 points on the session, and September soy oil was up 120 points for the week. The mixed but broadly supportive tone across the complex points to continued attention on crush margins and product supply/demand balances.
In delivery-related activity, Friday saw 120 deliveries against August beans, including 12 for bean meal and 1 for soy oil. Contract expirations were also noted for Friday’s cycle.
What analysts and traders are watching next
Monday’s catalyst is expected to come from NOPA, with traders looking for an estimate of 221.5 million bushels of soybeans crushed during July. The expectation implies crush activity more than 25 million bushels above the same month last year if realized. Alongside crush, traders are also focused on soybean oil inventories, with the market looking for 1.454 billion lbs.
Also on the radar is China’s procurement schedule. Sinograin is set to auction an additional 360,000 MT of imported beans on Wednesday, which could influence near-term buying expectations if bids align with earlier demand patterns.
Separately, the market is still digesting recent movement in ownership. The earlier-mentioned decline in open interest—down 453 contracts on Friday—was cited as consistent with a rotation of ownership rather than a uniform shift in direction.
Bigger picture for commodity investors
The near-term trade remains tied to a balance of U.S. export momentum and forward-looking crush fundamentals. Friday’s combination of China-linked sales and supportive USDA totals helped underpin prices, while managed money trimming net longs signaled that positioning is evolving as traders weigh upcoming data.
With the next U.S. processing read (NOPA) due Monday and an additional China tender scheduled for Wednesday, investors will likely treat any surprises in crush volumes, oil stocks, or export demand as potential drivers for the following sessions. The soybean complex’s reaction in soymeal and soy oil will be particularly important, since it can confirm whether strength is translating into broader demand for processing outputs.
Next up for the market is the NOPA report and any follow-through from USDA export updates, along with developments around China’s Sinograin auction. Traders will also watch how open interest and managed money positioning shift after Monday’s data-driven moves.
