Soybean futures gained in early Thursday trade, extending a rise from the prior session, as expectations ahead of upcoming U.S. export data supported sentiment. Open interest increased, suggesting fresh positioning, while cash prices also moved higher amid a quiet week punctuated by the July 4 holiday.
Key takeaways
- Soybeans were up modestly in Thursday morning futures trade, with gains of 3 to 9 1/2 cents across most contracts.
- Catalyst: Traders are looking toward the next USDA weekly Export Sales report and digesting recent crush activity data.
- Market implication: Higher open interest points to new demand for futures exposure, while the holiday-shortened week may concentrate attention around Friday’s report timing and subsequent trading on Sunday.
- Related markets: Soymeal futures were steady to higher, while soy oil was mixed.
What drove the move
Early price action in Chicago-traded soybean futures was supported by positioning signals and the lead-in to USDA’s weekly Export Sales release. According to a Reuters survey cited in the market update, analysts are looking for a sales range of 300,000 to 650,000 metric tons for 2025/26 soybeans in the week of 6/25. New-crop soybean sales are expected in a broader range of 350,000 to 900,000 metric tons.
The same Reuters survey pointed to potential demand across the meal and oil complex. Estimated soybean meal sales were cited in a range of 100,000 to 500,000 metric tons, while soybean oil business was expected between 0 and 13,000 metric tons. Market participants typically use the USDA export-sales report to gauge whether near-term demand is strengthening or weakening, which can feed through into futures.
Additional fundamental context came from U.S. crush data. According to fats and oils data from the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), soybean crush totaled 213.1 million bushels in May. That figure was below trade expectations of 214.9 million bushels, down 2.02% versus last month, and up 4.62% year over year.
Market reaction across the soybean complex
In Wednesday’s session, front-month contracts led the gains, and those advances carried into Thursday morning. The market update reported that soybeans were 5 to 6 1/2 cents higher so far in Thursday’s trade, with futures posting 3 to 9 1/2 cents gains across most contracts.
Open interest rose by 11,141 contracts, a detail the market update described as consistent with new buying activity. Delivery activity also remained in focus: the report noted 30 deliveries against July soybean futures overnight.
Cash prices were also higher. According to the report, the cmdtyView national average “Cash Bean” price increased 15 1/4 cents to $10.85 1/4. In the futures complex, soymeal futures were described as steady to $1.90 higher, while soy oil futures were mixed, ranging from 28 points higher to 24 points lower.
For the deferred soybean balance, the update listed multiple contract outcomes from the prior close, including Jul 26 soybeans closing at $11.26 1/4 (up 9 1/2 cents). It also reported Aug 26 at $11.33 1/4, Nov 26 at $11.49 1/4, and “new crop cash” at $10.85 1/4, each higher on the day.
Holiday calendar and what investors watch next
The market is set for a holiday break. The July 4 Independence Day holiday will close trading on Friday, creating a 3-day weekend. Sunday night is expected to resume trading on a normal schedule, which can affect how traders manage risk around the next USDA data cycle.
Looking ahead, the next major catalyst is the USDA weekly Export Sales report, due shortly after publication time of the update. Investors will likely focus on whether reported sales fall within the Reuters-forecast ranges—especially for 2025/26 soybean purchases, new-crop demand, and activity in meal and oil—as those details can shift expectations for the supply-demand balance and, in turn, influence prices across the soybean complex.
