Soybeans fell for most contracts on Wednesday, dragging related products lower as traders weighed weather, China demand activity, and expectations for the next U.S. export sales update. Deferred soybean contracts were slightly mixed, while the benchmark cash “Cash Bean” contract dropped and soymeal and soy oil futures also eased.
Key takeaways
- Soybeans: August 26 soybeans settled at $11.51 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents; the nearby cash contract was $11.29 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents.
- Catalyst: Focus centered on upcoming USDA Export Sales data, alongside reported rainfall prospects across parts of the U.S. Midwest and another round of China’s soybean import auctions.
- Complex reaction: Soymeal futures fell $1.30 to $2.80, while soy oil was 22 to 48 points lower.
- Implication: Investors are likely balancing near-term supply and crop-weather expectations with the pace of U.S. export demand reflected in weekly sales.
What drove the move
Wednesday’s weakness in soybeans came as traders looked ahead to Thursday’s USDA weekly Export Sales report. Analysts surveyed by the market were projecting total soybean sales for the week of 7/30 to fall in a 100,000 to 400,000 MT range for the 2025/26 marketing year. New-crop soybean business was estimated at 0.9 million to 1.55 million MT during the same week, according to those expectations.
Expectations also extended to the crush and oil complex. For soybean meal, projected weekly sales were in the 200,000 to 500,000 MT range, while bean oil was anticipated between net cancellations of 10,000 MT and sales of 10,000 MT.
Outside the export data cycle, weather and demand signals contributed to sentiment. The NOAA’s 7-day QPF indicated rain across much of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio, with totals ranging from near 1 inch to as much as 4 inches in some areas. Those conditions can influence harvest and crop development expectations, which in turn affect how futures price future supply.
China demand was also in focus. Sinograin reportedly held another auction of imported soybeans, selling 334,000 MT out of 501,000 MT at an average price of $594.84/MT, according to the report cited in the trading recap.
Market reaction across the soy complex
Soybeans posted broad declines across the front to deferred curve. August 26 soybeans closed at $11.51 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents. The nearby cash contract fell to $11.29 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents. September 26 soybeans finished at $11.56 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents, while November 26 soybeans settled at $11.74 3/4, down 3 cents.
Deferred pricing reflected a slightly more mixed tone, though still under pressure. The new crop cash contract was last reported at $11.13 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents.
Related futures moved in tandem. Soymeal futures were quoted down in a range of $1.30 to $2.80, while soy oil fell by 22 to 48 points, reflecting weaker pricing throughout the crush complex.
What to watch next
Traders’ immediate attention will likely return to the Thursday morning USDA Export Sales report, where soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil results could shift expectations for the strength of U.S. demand. Weather forecasts will remain another key driver, especially any updates that change rainfall coverage across the Midwest. China’s import auction pace is also likely to be watched for clues about how quickly buyers are absorbing U.S. supply, particularly in the context of new-crop marketing year assumptions.
