Soybeans futures finished modestly higher on Monday, with contracts across the curve up between 1 1/4 and 5 3/4 cents. The firmness in the front end followed a mix of steady crop development progress and export flow data, while soymeal futures declined and soy oil rose on the day.
In the cash market, the cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price increased to $11.36 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents. Soymeal futures fell, while soy oil futures advanced, underscoring a split in how traders priced crushing profitability and downstream demand.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Soybeans posted modest gains, with the August contract closing higher and nearby cash also up.
- Catalyst: Weekly US crop progress showed faster pod setting versus the 5-year average, while export shipments were higher week over week but below last year.
- Related markets: Soymeal futures declined, while soy oil futures rose, indicating diverging expectations within crush economics.
- Implication: Traders appear balancing improving crop development signals against the pace of sales and the positioning heading into upcoming USDA updates.
What drove the move
Weekly Crop Progress data from the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported 93% of the US soybean crop in bloom as of 8/9. The report also showed 74% of plants setting pods, which was 5 percentage points faster than the 5-year average.
At the same time, condition ratings were slightly weaker. The USDA said ratings declined 1% to 62% rated good to excellent (gd/ex). The Brugler500 index, a widely tracked measure in soybean markets, fell 2 points to 361.
On the demand side, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FGIS) tallied soybean export shipments of 399,201 metric tons (14.668 million bushels) for the week ending August 8. That level was 15% above the prior week, but 26.7% below the same week a year ago.
Destination flows highlighted ongoing global buying patterns: Germany led with 86,260 MT, while Mexico took 81,851 MT and Japan imported 81,699 MT. For the marketing year 2025/26, USDA reported exports at 39.75 million metric tons (1.46 billion bushels), which is 17.9% below the same period last year.
Market reaction across soymeal and soy oil
While soybeans were higher, the meal-and-oil complex moved in opposite directions. Soymeal futures fell by $1.80 to $4.40. Soy oil rose, gaining 83 to 130 points, reflecting differing views on supply tightness and crush margins.
The spread of moves suggests traders were not treating the complex as a single-direction trade. Instead, the market appeared to price soybeans with mild support while adjusting expectations for meal and oil based on separate fundamentals.
Export updates and what comes next
Looking ahead to key supply-demand benchmarks, a Reuters survey of traders projected NASS would peg the US soybean yield at 52.9 bushels per acre in its report due next Wednesday. The survey also pointed to harvested acres 163,000 higher than in the June estimate, with production seen at 4.472 billion bushels.
In addition, Reuters expectations for the upcoming WASDE indicated stocks for 2025/26 at 321 million bushels, down 9 million bushels from the prior month. New crop soybean stocks were estimated to decline by 6 million bushels to 304 million bushels.
These inputs matter for how futures trade because they directly affect the balance sheet. Traders are likely to scrutinize whether yield and acreage assumptions align with the crop progress pace and whether shipment trends support demand assumptions.
Prices into the close
- Aug 26 soybeans closed at $11.57 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents.
- Nearby cash was $11.36 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents.
- Sep 26 soybeans closed at $11.61 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents.
- Nov 26 soybeans closed at $11.79 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents.
- New crop cash was $11.20 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents.
Next for the market, traders will watch USDA’s upcoming yield and crop reports, followed by the WASDE update. Additional attention will likely go to export activity and crop condition metrics, especially given the slight softness in gd/ex ratings alongside faster pod-setting progress.
