Soybean futures edged higher on Thursday, with front-month contracts up a few cents, while nearby cash prices rose modestly. The market’s tone was supported by updated export sales data from the USDA and recent expectations for precipitation in parts of the U.S. growing region, even as some demand indicators came in below analyst expectations.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Front-month soybeans rose about 1 to 3 cents, while nearby crop cash beans were up about 2 cents to $10.87 1/4.
- Catalyst: USDA export sales showed old-crop bean bookings below expectations, alongside meal strength and a net cancellation in soybean oil.
- Implication: Investors weighed softer demand signals against weather support and stable crush activity reported for May.
- Calendar: The market will close Friday for the July 4 Independence Day holiday, with normal opening on Sunday night.
What drove the move
USDA’s weekly Export Sales report was a key input for trading. According to the report, old-crop soybean sales totaled 41,786 MT for the week of 6/25, falling below the analyst range of 300,000 to 650,000 MT and marking a marketing year low for the 2025/26 crop year.
New-crop sales were also relatively light. USDA reported 182,533 MT of new-crop soybean sales, below the estimated 350,000 to 900,000 MT and representing a three-week low. Despite that softness, the new-crop figure was still reported as 16.89% higher than the same week last year.
Complex spreads: meal firmer, oil mixed
Beyond beans, soymeal and soy oil futures reflected a more mixed demand picture. Soymeal futures were steady to higher, while soy oil futures were mixed, ranging from gains to losses across the nearby strip.
In USDA’s export breakdown, the report showed no new deliveries issued against July soybean meal overnight, while soybean oil saw additional activity, with 169 deliveries against July soybean oil.
For the broader export week, USDA said soybean meal sales totaled 413,635 MT, positioned at the high end of the estimated 100,000 to 500,000 MT range. The report also listed 239,147 MT for the current marketing year and 174,488 MT for 2026/27.
For soybean oil, USDA reported a net cancellation of 1,517 MT, which was below expectations that ranged from zero to 13,000 MT.
Market reaction and positioning
Trading interest in the soybean complex remained concentrated in the front months. According to exchange activity cited in the report, there were 30 deliveries against July soybean futures overnight. Cash pricing also moved modestly higher: the cmdtyView national average cash bean price was up 2 cents to $10.87 1/4.
Soybean futures prices at the time of publication were mixed across the contract curve. The July 26 contract was reported at $11.29, up 2 3/4 cents, while the August 26 contract was at $11.34 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents. Longer-dated November 26 soybeans were reported at $11.47 1/4, down 2 cents. New-crop cash was indicated at $10.83 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents.
Investors appeared to respond to a balancing act: softer export sales for both old and new crop beans suggested demand risk, but strength in soymeal sales and a constructive weather outlook helped limit losses and supported a mild uptick in futures.
Weather and crush data add context
Weather forecasts added support to the market’s near-term outlook. The NOAA 7-day QPF highlighted rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches across much of the Dakotas and extending through Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and parts of northern Illinois and Indiana. Much of the precipitation is expected to end by the weekend, with a drier start anticipated early next week.
Coverage was weaker elsewhere. The report noted very limited totals expected across Missouri through much of the eastern Corn Belt (including parts of the ECB).
On the supply side, NASS fats & oils data showed soybean crush activity in May. Data cited in the report placed May crush at 213.1 mbu, slightly below trade expectations of 214.9 mbu. That level was reported as 2.02% lower than the prior month but 4.62% higher year over year.
What analysts and traders will watch next
With the July 4 Independence Day holiday approaching, trading volume may thin ahead of the weekend. Sunday night will resume a normal open after Friday’s market closure.
Near term, attention is likely to remain on whether the next export-sales update shows a rebound from the low old-crop bookings and the relatively soft new-crop figures. Traders will also monitor follow-through on weather patterns across key producing areas and any subsequent changes in crush margins and product demand reflected in soymeal and soy oil futures.
