Soybean futures moved higher in early trading on Friday, extending gains after Thursday’s settlement, as traders weighed export demand signals and competing macro policy expectations tied to U.S. fuel blending. Soybeans were up about 8 to 11 cents in morning activity, with the weekly export data and forthcoming government decisions on refinery exemptions and related renewable fuel quotas in focus.
Alongside soybeans, soymeal futures were slightly firmer, while soy oil rose after tracking crude and policy-sensitive demand expectations. The complex’s price action reflected continued attention on end-user buying, cancellations, and the pace of new-crop sales.
Key takeaways
- Soybeans were up 8 to 11 cents in Friday morning trading after Thursday’s higher close; nearby cash was also firmer.
- Catalyst: Traders digested the weekly Export Sales report and market chatter around U.S. EPA-related refinery exemptions and potential renewable fuel quota adjustments for 2027.
- Meal and oil followed the broader complex: soymeal held gains while soy oil rebounded.
- Implication: Export activity showed a split between end-of-marketing-year softness and a stronger new-crop sales pace, which may influence pricing into the next marketing year.
What drove the move
U.S. soybean futures gained after Thursday’s close, supported by developments linked to renewable fuels policy and the latest trade flow data.
Renewable fuels policy expectations also contributed to commodity sentiment. Reuters reported that, following indications the EPA was considering approval of additional small refinery exemptions this week, the White House was contemplating increasing 2027 quotas by 500 million gallons to offset exemptions that are higher than originally expected. Reuters added that nothing has been officially announced by the administration.
On the demand side, the weekly Export Sales report showed mixed near-term and new-crop signals. The report cited 73,913 MT of 2025/26 soybean sales for the week of 8/20, described as a three-week low as the marketing year approaches its end.
Customer buying remained concentrated. Egypt led with 105,000 MT, while 66,300 MT was sold to Indonesia. The report also noted 169,500 MT of sales canceled by “Unknown buyers,” with most of those quantities switched to another buyer.
New-crop activity was stronger. New crop sales were reported at 2.478 MMT, which the report framed as a marketing year high and more than double the same week last year. China was the largest buyer at 1.1 MMT, including 1.046 MMT sold to unknown destinations. In addition, accumulated 2026/27 sales totaled 14.334 MMT, nearing double the level from the same time last year and noted as the fourth-largest for the current week in the last 10 years.
For the crush complex, the Export Sales report showed:
- Soymeal sales of 427,480 MT, within an estimated 200,000 to 800,000 MT range. The report separated current marketing year sales at 104,702 MT and next marketing year sales at 322,778 MT.
- Soy oil business at 360 MT for the current marketing year and 0 MT for 2026/27, with combined sales falling in the middle of an expected range that included net cancellations to net sales.
Market reaction across the soybean complex
Price action reflected modest, steady follow-through rather than a sharp repricing.
According to Thursday’s futures pricing cited in the report, Sep 26 Soybeans closed at $12.56 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents, and were indicated higher again in Friday morning trading. Nearby cash was reported at $12.32 1/4, also up 2 1/4 cents. The report similarly listed Nov 26 Soybeans at $12.68 (up 2 cents), Jan 27 Soybeans at $12.83 (up 2 1/4 cents), and new crop cash at $12.10 1/2 (up 2 1/2 cents).
Soymeal futures were described as steady to modestly higher, while soy oil was reported higher by 32 to 80 points during the Thursday session, tracking the complex’s sensitivity to crush economics and policy-linked demand expectations.
Trade flows, tenders, and what to watch next
Beyond U.S. export sales, additional supply-demand data and scheduled procurement events also set the tone.
European Commission data showed EU soybean imports for 2026/27 at 14.5 MMT, up 0.6 MMT from the previous month’s estimate, suggesting steadier forward demand expectations into the next crop cycle.
In China, Sinograin—a Chinese state stockpiler—was scheduled to auction 68,000 MT of soybeans on September 2, a smaller volume relative to global flows but potentially relevant for near-term local buying sentiment.
Looking ahead, investors are likely to monitor the pace of new-crop export bookings versus late-marketing-year softness, along with any official confirmation of U.S. renewable fuel quota adjustments tied to EPA refinery exemption decisions. Traders will also watch the next set of export sales and any follow-through on policy developments that could shift expectations for demand under the biofuel market framework.
