SHiba Inu (SHIB) extended its gains in a week that has crypto markets broadly rallying toward key resistance levels. The memecoin rose about 4% to roughly $0.00000611 in today’s trade, still hovering above the 50-day exponential moving average. Yet on-chain data painted a more cautious picture, suggesting the move could be temporary as buyers contend with potential selling pressure ahead.
According to Santiment data, SHIB climbed 4% to the mid-$0.000006 range, but a sharp dip in the Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) indicator earlier this week indicated holders were realizing losses. The same data set showed elevated dormant-token activity alongside rising transaction volume, signaling that older tokens in wallets were in motion and contributing to short-term volatility.
Santiment notes that when dormant wallet activity and transaction volume rise while the NPL indicator records a negative spike, the market often experiences a brief rally before a material pullback—a pattern that has preceded pullbacks in the past, including a noted instance in December when SHIB moved higher before correcting sharply.
CryptoQuant’s data adds another layer to the near-term outlook. While there are signs of optimism from the futures side—evidenced by the presence of large orders—other data suggests the market could still face headwinds. In particular, indicators point to potential selling pressure that could cap gains in the days ahead as demand wanes and selling interest intensifies in the backdrop of persistent meme-coin volatility.
Key takeaways
- Price move: SHIB up about 4% to around $0.00000611, trading above the 50-day EMA.
- Catalyst and data signals: Broad crypto strength is lifting SHIB, but on-chain metrics show risk factors, including rising dormant-token activity and a negative NPL spike.
- Market implication: A near-term bull trap risk exists; momentum indicators are mixed, with a cautious stance warranted despite the rally.
- Levels to watch: A move above the 100-day EMA near $0.0000065 could open a path toward the weekly resistance near $0.0000068; immediate support sits around $0.0000056, with a deeper dip toward $0.0000050 possible on a daily close below that level.
What drove the move
The broader crypto market has been bullish this week, with major assets like Bitcoin and Ether reclaiming and testing important resistance thresholds. That environment has provided uplift for meme-focused coins, including SHIB, which has traded in a tight range for weeks as traders weigh risk-taking against caution.
From a technical standpoint, SHIB breached the psychological and technical hurdle of the 50-day EMA around $0.0000060, a level that had been watched by traders as a barometer for near-term momentum. The price action comes amid a tilt toward risk-on sentiment in cryptocurrency markets, where liquidity and market breadth have improved in fits and starts.
On-chain dynamics, however, suggest the move may be fragile. Dormant-token flows and a rising transaction count can reflect renewed activity, but they do not guarantee sustainable upside. The NPL metric’s negative tilt indicates that more market participants are realizing losses, a sign that the bounce could run out of steam without additional catalysts.
Market signals and near-term implications
Beyond the price action, the on-chain picture offers mixed signals for SHIB. Santiment’s analysis highlights a conjunction of rising dormant activity, higher transaction volume, and a negative NPL reading. Historically, this combination has coincided with short-lived rallies followed by pullbacks as early investors take profits and late buyers face selling pressure.
CryptoQuant’s data adds nuance: while some large futures orders imply optimism about higher prices, other indicators point to potential selling pressure that could cap gains in the near term. The contrast between optimistic futures positioning and selling-implied on-chain and order-flow signals has left traders cautious about chasing further upside in SHIB, at least in the immediate horizon.
From a technical perspective, SHIB’s 4-hour chart continues to show a mixed setup. The token has been consolidating between roughly $0.00000561 and $0.00000626 since March 19. A drop back below the 50-day EMA near $0.0000060 would reinforce a downside bias, while a sustained daily close above the 100-day EMA near $0.0000065 could open room toward the next resistance near $0.0000068.
Momentum indicators reflect indecision. The 4-hour RSI sits in the mid-60s, suggesting fading momentum rather than a clear acceleration. The MACD lines remain close, underscoring a balance between buyers and sellers rather than an unmistakable trend. Traders should keep a close watch on intraday flows and daily closes for clearer directional signals.
In the broader context, SHIB’s price action underscores the ongoing sensitivity of meme coins to on-chain signals and liquidity conditions. While a broad risk-on tilt can lift speculative assets, the path higher for SHIB will likely hinge on sustained buying interest and a reduction in selling pressure on the margins rather than a broad, durable shift in macro conditions.
Investors should monitor the immediate support around $0.0000056 and the pivotal resistance near $0.0000068. A decisive break above the 100-day EMA could reframe near-term odds, while a move below the lower consolidation boundary might trigger a deeper correction toward the $0.0000050 level or lower.
According to the market data, SHIB’s near-term trajectory remains uncertain, with the potential for a brief upside driven by ongoing broad-market strength tempered by on-chain signals that warn of a bull trap. As always with meme coins, liquidity and sentiment will be the deciding factors in the days ahead.
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