US stock indexes edged higher on Tuesday, with the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq 100 moving up as investors digested a mix of corporate earnings and softer parts of the macro calendar. The S&P 500 rose, alongside fresh record levels for the Dow and the S&P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 traded higher supported by strong company results.
Earnings momentum remained the main driver of individual stock performance: Booking Holdings gained after reporting better-than-expected gross bookings, while Amgen climbed following stronger-than-anticipated quarterly earnings. Losses were led by SpaceX, which fell after signaling higher-than-expected spending on its artificial intelligence business, and by Advanced Micro Devices, which dropped after its third-quarter sales forecast failed to meet elevated expectations.
Key takeaways
- Major indexes: The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq 100 all finished the session higher, with the S&P 500 and Dow posting new all-time highs and the Nasdaq 100 at a one-month high.
- Catalysts: Company earnings (notably Booking Holdings and Amgen), alongside updates in rates and credit-market data, supported risk appetite.
- Energy and geopolitics: Oil prices rebounded after renewed threats in the Red Sea, although gains were capped by reports that an interim path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz may be developing.
- Rates theme: Trading in Treasury notes reflected conflicting signals from Fed commentary and employment data, keeping bond prices sensitive.
- Investor implication: With earnings season staying constructive and rate expectations still in flux, equity direction appears likely to remain closely tied to corporate guidance and policy outlook.
What drove the move
Shares rose as investors continued to focus on earnings. Booking Holdings jumped more than 7% after reporting Q2 gross bookings that beat consensus. Amgen climbed more than 5% after stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings.
Other high-profile movers reinforced the earnings-driven tape. In the Nasdaq 100, Shopify rose more than 16% after its Q2 revenue topped expectations. In the S&P 500, Wynn Resorts gained more than 11% on better-than-expected adjusted earnings.
Downside was also tied to results and forecasts. SpaceX fell more than 10% after it projected higher-than-expected spending on its AI business, despite reporting better-than-expected quarterly earnings. Advanced Micro Devices dropped more than 4% after its third-quarter sales outlook missed investor hopes for a stronger rebound.
Market reaction: oil, rates and global risk
Oil and bond markets reflected a cautious balancing act between growth, inflation and geopolitical risk. Crude prices rebounded from earlier losses and turned higher as Yemen’s Houthi militant group threatened to escalate attacks on Saudi vessels in the northern Red Sea. However, the upside in crude was constrained by a report that the US, Iran and Oman were nearing an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to Axios.
On the policy side, commentary from Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid added to rate-volatility. He said he does not view the current stance of monetary policy as restrictive given demand and investment strength, and argued that bringing inflation to the Fed’s 2% objective will require tighter policy.
Rates trading also incorporated fresh US labor-market data. US MBA mortgage applications fell in the week ended July 31, while the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to a one-year high, reflecting persistent sensitivity to mortgage rates. The ADP employment change rose by 44,000 in July, weaker than expectations of 65,000—an element investors can read as somewhat dovish for Fed expectations.
Treasury notes were pressured by the stock-market bid and Schmid’s hawkish framing. According to the report, September 10-year T-notes fell and the 10-year yield moved higher, even as losses were limited by the weaker-than-expected ADP print. The Treasury also maintained next week’s quarterly refunding amount at $125 billion and left its issuance guidance unchanged into 2027, offering some stability to the rates outlook.
Overseas, equities leaned higher. The Euro Stoxx 50 reached a new all-time high, while China’s Shanghai Composite closed up and Japan’s Nikkei-225 rose to a one-and-a-half-week high, according to the report.
Earnings backdrop and rate probabilities
Earnings expectations remained a central pillar for the equity market. Bloomberg Intelligence projections cited in the report pointed to Q2 earnings growth of about 23%, close to the prior quarter’s 30% surge, after analysts’ expectations were previously exceeded. The report also said AI spending is expected to account for much of the quarter’s results, with AI infrastructure stocks contributing nearly 60% of the S&P 500’s earnings-per-share growth in Q2.
So far, the report cited positive earnings delivery: 86% of the 372 S&P 500 companies that had reported Q2 earnings beat estimates, based on Bloomberg data. That supportive trend helped explain why investors were willing to look through pockets of weakness tied to guidance and spending plans.
At the same time, rate expectations stayed in focus. The report said markets were pricing a 58% chance of a 25 basis-point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 15–16, highlighting that investors are still weighing the balance between cooling data and hawkish policy signals.
What to watch next
Traders will likely keep monitoring the next wave of earnings updates and company guidance for confirmation that AI-related spending and profit delivery can offset any pressure from higher-for-longer rates. In the near term, bond pricing may remain sensitive to additional Fed commentary, while oil moves could hinge on developments affecting the Red Sea and any progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
