Pepe shares are extending their three-week recovery, with the meme coin trading higher on Monday as both large investors and retail traders reportedly increased activity. Data cited by market analytics firms points to ongoing accumulation—supported by falling exchange balances and rising participation in derivatives markets—while near-term price action hinges on whether the token can reclaim a key moving-average level.
On-chain and derivatives indicators also suggest that bullish momentum may persist if buyers can push through current resistance, though the same signals imply higher leverage and potential volatility risk in the event of a reversal.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Pepe is trading higher Monday, extending a recovery trend that has been building for about three weeks.
- Catalyst: Whale accumulation appears to be increasing alongside declining token balances on cryptocurrency exchanges.
- Derivatives confirmation: Pepe futures open interest and trading volume rose over the past 24 hours, with funding rates still positive.
- Key implication: Technical levels—especially the 50-day EMA area—may determine whether the recovery broadens or stalls.
What drove the move
Institutional-sized investors appear to have stepped up exposure to Pepe after its earlier pullback, according to data compiled by Santiment. The firm’s metrics show that wallets holding between 10 million and 1 billion Pepe now control 0.89% of the total supply, up from 0.85% in late February. Meanwhile, wallets holding 1 billion to 10 billion Pepe increased their share from 2.51% to 2.57% over the same period.
The direction and gradual nature of these changes are consistent with accumulation rather than distribution. The report also notes that roughly 25% of Pepe’s circulating supply is back in profit, which may reflect improving market conditions after the prior recovery phase began.
In parallel, Santiment data points to a shift away from exchange custody. The proportion of Pepe held on centralized exchanges fell to 18.64% from 22.35% over the same timeframe. Lower exchange balances generally indicate that more tokens are being moved to private wallets—often interpreted as reducing immediate selling pressure and supporting a constructive medium-term backdrop.
Market reaction: derivatives step up
Derivatives activity has also picked up, which traders often view as a sign that new positioning is being established rather than simply rotating existing exposure.
According to CoinGlass, Pepe futures open interest rose 3% over the past 24 hours to approximately $152.92 million. Over the same period, futures trading volume nearly doubled, jumping 106% to $384.64 million. The combination of higher open interest and greater volume suggests fresh capital is entering the market.
Funding rates remain positive at 0.0029%, a condition that implies traders holding long positions are paying a premium to maintain exposure. Such a setup is typically associated with a bullish sentiment tilt in futures markets, though it can also raise the risk of sharper downside moves if price momentum breaks.
While leverage can amplify gains when the trend holds, it also increases liquidation risk during sudden pullbacks. If Pepe experiences a sharp reversal, crowded long positions could unwind quickly, adding to short-term volatility.
Technical picture: reclaiming the 50-day EMA
Technically, the 4-hour Pepe/USD chart is being described as testing a meaningful resistance area after consolidating beneath it for most of last week. The focus is on reclaiming the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), cited near $0.000002850. Whether Pepe can sustain trading above this level could influence whether the recovery develops further.
Momentum indicators cited in the report skew moderately toward buyers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 55, indicating improving bullish momentum without reaching clearly overbought conditions. The MACD is also described as rising toward the zero line while remaining above its signal line, which is generally interpreted as strengthening upward momentum.
If Pepe can close above the 50-day EMA, the next upside targets highlighted are $0.000003206 resistance, followed by a supply area around $0.000003893 associated with the 200-day EMA. Conversely, the immediate support zone is identified near $0.000002659. If that level fails, the report suggests Pepe could retreat toward a prior swing low around $0.000002249.
Bigger picture: what to watch next
For investors, the near-term signal will be whether Pepe holds above the cited Fibonacci support area and successfully reclaims the 50-day EMA region. Continued strength in derivatives—especially if open interest grows without a sharp deterioration in funding conditions—could reinforce the recovery narrative. Traders will also be watching for any rapid increase in liquidation risk, which can emerge quickly when leverage builds. Beyond technicals and positioning, broader market drivers for risk assets and crypto sentiment remain relevant as this week’s developments unfold.
