President Donald Trump signaled he is unlikely to extend the two-week Iran ceasefire, intensifying the spotlight on negotiations to resolve the conflict. In parallel, Tesla shares traded lower ahead of its first-quarter results as investors weighed softer EV demand against updates on the company’s AI initiatives. Oil markets rallied on renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, while Bitcoin held a cautious tone despite robust inflows into exchange-traded crypto products reflecting institutional demand.
Key takeaways
- Oil up on Hormuz risks: WTI rose to $89.27 a barrel and Brent advanced to $95.78, as geopolitical frictions around the Hormuz corridor resurfaced. The move underscores ongoing supply-risk concerns for energy markets.
- Tesla slips ahead of results: Tesla shares fell more than 2% as investors priced in earnings visibility amid mixed demand signals and expectations for AI-focused commentary. The stock had rebounded about 15% last week but remains down from late January levels.
- Bitcoin steady with ETF inflows: Bitcoin traded near $76,300, rebounding from weekend losses but hovering in a narrow range as institutional buyers continued to deploy capital through spot ETFs, with inflows totaling nearly $1 billion over the past week.
- Diplomatic risk remains a driver: The Iran-related tension logic persists, with policymakers watching for a potential breakthrough in negotiations even as disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program linger.
What drove the move
According to CNBC, President Donald Trump indicated that extending the two-week ceasefire with Iran is unlikely absent a clear agreement, underscoring the urgency of diplomacy but also the risk of a protracted standoff. The ceasefire, announced earlier in April, is due to expire on Wednesday evening Washington time, with Trump saying it is “highly unlikely” he would extend it if no deal is reached. He also reiterated a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would remain in place until a deal is signed, arguing that Iran “desperately want[s] it opened.”
The diplomatic dynamic is further underscored by ongoing travel and negotiation plans. Vice President JD Vance is expected to travel to Pakistan for talks, with potential involvement from figures associated with the administration and private sector actors. In parallel, Iran’s leadership signaled continued skepticism about U.S. intentions. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said there remains a “deep historical mistrust in Iran toward U.S. government conduct” and that Iranians “do not submit to force.”
Even as the standoff persists, officials cautioned that a deal remains possible in the coming days as discussions continue over Iran’s nuclear program and uranium stockpiles. The events keep the Strait of Hormuz squarely in the market’s sight, given the route’s strategic importance to global oil flows.
Market reaction
Oil: The renewed tension around Hormuz drove a sharp price move in crude. West Texas Intermediate climbed to $89.27 a barrel, up 6.4% on the session, while Brent crude rose to $95.78, up about 6%. The gains reflect reassessed supply risk from potential disruptions in a chokepoint that handles a substantial portion of the world’s crude shipments. Market chatter cited recent actions such as the seizure of a cargo vessel and Iran’s stance on keeping the strait closed absent sanctions relief as accelerants of risk premium.
Supply-risk expectations remained elevated. In industry notes, analysts warned that prolonged disruption could translate into a pronounced supply shortfall later in the year if flows remain constrained. Shipping activity has slowed meaningfully, with only a handful of vessels crossing the corridor in recent hours versus higher activity a day earlier. The broader takeaway is that a flare-up in this corridor can feed through to prices across the energy complex and complicate inflation dynamics for consumers and producers alike.
Tesla: Shares moved lower as investors positioned for the company’s earnings release. The stock declined more than 2% on Monday, following a near-15% rebound last week and a roughly 7% drop from late January through the current period. Investors will be parsing expected quarterly results and any commentary on end-user demand, production trends, and the company’s AI roadmap, including aspirations around autonomous driving and other AI-enabled initiatives.
Bitcoin and crypto ETFs: Bitcoin traded around $76,300, trimming some weekend losses but holding a cautious posture amid macro uncertainties. The price action reflects a familiar pattern: macro catalysts drive swift moves, but sustained upside requires persistent capital flows. Institutional demand remained robust, with U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recording $996.4 million in inflows over the prior week—the strongest weekly tally since mid-January and part of a three-week stretch totaling more than $1.8 billion.
Analysts have highlighted the resilience of ETF-driven inflows as a notable source of support for Bitcoin, even as near-term resistance sits near $81,000. The flow backdrop remains a key driver, with macro factors such as Federal Reserve policy expected to influence the next leg of price action. Industry observers pointed to ongoing accumulation by spot ETF firms as a meaningful signal of demand strength, noting the latest figures are among the most substantial in recent months.
What analysts are saying
On Tesla, consensus views remain divided as investors await concrete quarterly results. Morgan Stanley maintained an Equalweight rating with a target of $415, while Jefferies raised its price target to $350, reflecting a more constructive view on medium-term growth despite near-term demand headwinds. The divergence in price targets underscores the market’s split assessment of Tesla’s ability to monetize AI and robotaxi ambitions against ongoing EV demand headwinds and competitive pressures.
Beyond Tesla, traders and strategists note that the oil rally, while notable, sits within a broader volatility context driven by geopolitical risk and shifting supply-demand dynamics. The trajectory of energy prices will likely hinge on diplomatic developments in the Iran negotiations, as well as any changes in U.S. energy policy or global demand signals that could alter the supply-demand balance in the coming weeks.
Bigger picture
The period’s cross-asset moves illustrate a common thread: geopolitics and macro policy remain potent market drivers. Energy markets have shown sensitivity to escalations or de-escalations in the Middle East, where even small shifts can reverberate through prices, inflation expectations, and global growth trajectories. At the same time, flows into crypto ETFs reveal how institutions are positioning for both macro volatility and the evolving regulatory landscape surrounding digital assets.
Investors are also contending with the likely path of U.S. monetary policy. As Fed policy considerations and inflation data continue to shape risk sentiment, assets that are sensitive to macro sentiment—oil, equities with exposure to AI and tech cycles, and crypto assets leveraged by ETF flows—may continue to exhibit pronounced moves in response to headlines from Washington, Tehran, and global markets alike.
Looking ahead, traders will be focused on several near-term catalysts: any developments in Iran-U.S. diplomacy and the Hormuz situation, Tesla’s earnings print and commentary on demand and AI execution, and the trajectory of ETF inflows into Bitcoin as the sector tests higher resistance levels. The confluence of these factors will help determine whether the current price action sustains or retreats in the weeks ahead.
What to watch next: Tesla’s quarterly report and guidance, any new diplomatic milestones in talks over Iran’s nuclear program, the evolution of energy supply expectations in the Gulf region, and the ongoing flow dynamics in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Market participants will also be paying close attention to the next round of Federal Reserve communications and key inflation indicators for clues on the rate path and risk appetite.
