Shares of Nebius and CoreWeave surged in the first half of 2026, but momentum faded sharply after early July as investors reassessed the risks around their biggest cloud customers. Nebius stock climbed more than 200% in the first six months of the year, while CoreWeave gained about 39%. By July 30, however, Nebius’s year-to-date gain had slipped to roughly 125% and CoreWeave was up only about 3% for the year, according to the article.
The pullback was linked to renewed uncertainty about whether Meta Platforms would move into cloud computing in a way that could reduce demand for the AI computing capacity these firms provide. Recent comments from Meta have since offered some investors a clearer view of how much compute the company expects to buy externally.
Key takeaways
- Price move: Nebius more than doubled in the first half of 2026, but its year-to-date gain fell to about 125% by July 30; CoreWeave’s first-half rally stalled, leaving it up roughly 3% for the year by July 30.
- Catalyst: Shares slid after Meta Platforms signaled it was considering entering cloud computing, raising concerns that Meta could take more compute in-house.
- What changed: Meta’s later comments during its Q2 conference call suggested it would still take compute available from external providers—at prices that Meta said it could profit from.
- Key implication: For both neocloud providers, demand expectations tied to Meta remain a central driver, even as investors weigh the long-term path to profitability.
What triggered the sell-off after July began
Nebius and CoreWeave operate as “neocloud” providers that supply AI-focused computing capacity. They are expanding rapidly to meet surging demand for AI infrastructure, and both rely on contracts with major technology companies.
According to the article, a key risk became more prominent at the start of July when Meta Platforms hinted that it might enter the cloud computing business. Meta’s chief executive, Mark Zuckerberg, previously indicated that any shift toward cloud services would depend on having computing capacity in excess of internal needs. That framing, as investors interpreted it, implied Meta could potentially reduce reliance on third-party capacity if it chose to bring more computation in-house first—or reallocate capacity in ways that change purchasing plans.
The market reaction was swift for stocks tied to AI infrastructure demand, with investors taking profits and recalibrating expectations for near-term contract visibility—particularly because both neocloud providers are positioned to benefit when large customers such as Meta need additional flexibility.
Why Meta’s latest comments mattered
The article argues that investors may have been overestimating the immediate threat to external compute demand. During Meta’s Q2 conference call, Zuckerberg stated that Meta was “getting a lot of offers for compute at a significant premium” over what it pays for that compute.
As presented in the article, the implication is straightforward: Meta is still likely to absorb as much computing capacity as it can handle. If Meta can profit from selling or monetizing compute above its purchase cost, demand for external capacity may remain intact, reducing the immediate likelihood that Meta’s cloud ambitions will translate into a sudden step-down in purchases from providers like Nebius and CoreWeave.
Growth expectations versus the profitability gap
Even with the pullback from July highs, the article highlights a divergence in how investors might value the companies based on growth trajectories. Both businesses are currently unprofitable, but the article suggests revenue growth expectations remain a major part of the investment debate.
According to Wall Street expectations cited in the article, analysts look for Nebius revenue to grow dramatically—forecast to rise about 540% in 2026 and about 238% in 2027. For CoreWeave, the cited growth projections are lower but still substantial, with expectations of about 146% growth in 2026 and about 99% next year.
That growth-and-risk trade-off is central to the sell-off recovery question. While higher top-line expansion can support long-term valuation in fast-scaling infrastructure businesses, the lack of profitability keeps financing and execution risk elevated. The article notes that both firms are spending heavily to build out data-center capacity, and that it could take years to establish a durable, cloud-like business model.
What investors are likely watching next
For Nebius and CoreWeave, the next test will be whether external compute demand remains stable as AI infrastructure builds out and whether customers’ capacity decisions evolve beyond the initial “cloud entry” narrative. Investors will likely look for further customer commentary, evidence of contract durability, and updates that clarify how quickly each company can translate data-center scale into improved unit economics. With the year’s momentum already swinging after July, follow-through on revenue growth and any signs of improving profitability could be the key near-term markers.
